基里巴斯：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;ANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withKiribati, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration ona lapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended onMay 19, with the officials ofKiribation economic developments and policies. Based oninformation available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completedonJune18, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •ADebt Sustainability Analysisprepared by the staff of the IMF and theInternationalDevelopment Association (IDA). TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes2025Article IV ConsultationwithKiribati FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •The Kiribati economy has rebounded following the COVID-19 pandemic and continues togrow steadily, despite shocks. Downside risks have increased but can be addressed withwell-calibrated countercyclical fiscal policy and structural reforms. •A credible fiscal consolidation over the medium term, accompanied by improved publicinvestment efficiency, is needed to anchor debt and support higher investment in climateadaptation. •Establishing a debt management framework, with enhanced capacity to analyze newborrowing and assess sources of risk, as well as strong governance, transparency andaccountability, is vital for continued long-term growth. Washington, DC–July 10, 2025:OnJuly 9, 2025, the Executive Board of the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation withKiribati, and considered andendorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting. Real GDP grew by an estimated 5.3 percent in 2024 and is now close to its pre-COVIDtrend.Recent growth has largely been supported by an expansion of the public sector amidrelatively subdued private production. Inflation moderated in 2024, in line with globalcommodity prices, but has started to rise in 2025Q1 due to long-overdue increases infuelprices and electricity tariffs. Fiscal policy was expansionary in 2024, with an increase incurrent expenditures to support a wage bill increase and a slight decline in fishing revenues asa share of GDP. The sovereign wealth fund (RERF) withdrawal rule was relaxed in 2024 tosupport government priority spending. Real GDP growth is expected to moderate to around 3.9 percent in 2025 and togradually decline to around 2 percent over the medium term.Economic activity in 2025 isexpected to be driven largely by public consumption and the continuation of infrastructureprojects. Productivity and population growth are expected to remain subdued and weigh onmedium-term growth. Inflation is expected to increase to 7.8 percent in 2025, due to the one-off increase in fuel and electricity prices, and then moderate over the medium term, in line withtrading partners’ inflation. The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 0.6 percent ofGDP in 2025, mostly owing to lower global commodity prices. The fiscal deficit is projected tonarrow in 2025, thanks to efforts to contain current expenditures. Executive Board Assessment In concluding the2025Article IV consultation withKiribati, Executive Directors endorsedstaff’s appraisal, as follows: The Kiribati economy has been resilient, despite repeated shocks.Kiribati is pursuing anambitious long-term development agenda, focused on infrastructure, social benefits, financialinclusion, and small businesses, including copra famers. Global trade policy changes in 2025are expected to have only a small impact onGDP growth in the baseline, given Kiribati’slimited exports of goods and services. Significant increases in the electricity tariff and fuelprice in 2025 were needed to align them with market prices and are projected to temporarilyincrease inflation. Thefiscal deficit narrowed in 2025, but a trend decline in fishing revenuesand higher government spending have weighed on fiscal and current account balancesrelative to pre-COVID. The external position in 2024 is assessed to be weaker than the levelimplied by fundamentals and desirable policies, with government spending contributing to highdemand for imports. Risks have increased and are tilted to the downside.On the domestic side, under thecurrent return-based withdrawal rule, weak financial market returns in 2025 could jeopardizethe sovereign wea