莱纳公司（LEN）2025年第二季度业绩初步观察

2Q'25 Results First Look 2Q adj. EPS of $1.90 (ex. MTM) vs. cons. $1.95 with higherSG&A and lower ASP, but GM% in-line. 2Q Orders +6% y/y atlow-end of guidance. Order ASPs down -12% y/y. 3Qhomebuilding op. profit guided -15% below Street but within-line GM. 3Q orders guided -4% below Street. LENEQUAL WEIGHTU.S. Homebuilding &Building ProductsPOSITIVEPrice TargetUSD 110.00Price (16-Jun-25)USD 109.49Potential Upside/Downside+0.5%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research We appreciate your5-star votein the2025Extel All-America Research SurveyintheHomebuilders & Building Productscategory:Vote 5 Stars for Barclays » U.S. Homebuilding & BuildingProducts A lot of noise in the print with surprisingly elevated SG&A, a 3Q op. profit guide -15%below consensus, and weaker order ASPs...but the gross margin held the line and that'sthe KPI. With LEN delivering 18% in 2Q (ex. purch acct.) and guiding to 18% in 3Q, we thinkthat would be enough for a relief rally tomorrow, noting investor expectations for thegross margin to be under much more pressure.It appears that LEN is having success inreducing construction costs (we est. by 300+ bps YoY), helping tooffsetthe sharp -9% YoYdecline in ASP. Focus on the 11AM ET call will be on whether LEN maintains its FY delivery guideand what that would mean for margins, but holding the line at 18% likely assuages that concernfor now. Still, with ASP under pressure, the SG&A% deleverage is driving significant pressure toEBIT margins, which appear to be guided below 8% for 3Q. We look for more details on theearnings call regarding LEN's outlook on incentives into a seasonallysofterquarter, the abilityfor lower construction costs to continue to support GM%, details on the impact of Millrose toLEN's earnings, market dynamics including rising inventories, and the outlook for controllingSG&A. Matthew Bouley+1 212 526 9029matthew.bouley@barclays.comBCI, US Elizabeth Langan+1 212 526 5960elizabeth.langan@barclays.comBCI, US Anika Dholakia+1 212 526 8780anika.dholakia@barclays.comBCI, US Elaine Ku+1 212 526 7529elaine.ku@barclays.comBCI, US 3Q'25 guidance:We estimate guidance implies 3Q homebuilding operating profit of $850 mnvs. our comparable $960 mn estimate and Street $1.02bn. Guidance for 3Q'25 orders came in at22k-23k, or 22.5k at the midpoint, which is -6% vs. our estimate of 23.9k and -3.6% belowconsensus 23.3k. If LEN were to hold 87k as the FY delivery midpoint, 4Q deliveries would be implied 26.5k,versus consensus 25.0k. LEN ended the quarter with $1.2 bn cash on the B/S (~4% of market-cap),following $517 mnof buyback. For 2Q,HB revenue came in at $7.8 bn (vs. our $8 bn), driven by closings +2% y/y vs. our +2% y/yand a closing ASP of $389k (vs. Barclays $396k). HB GM of 17.8% came in ~flat vs. our 17.8%estimate (both including 20 bps purchase accounting), with adj. SG&A at 8.8% (vs. Barclays8.1%). Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 3.Completed: 16-Jun-25, 22:54 GMTReleased: 16-Jun-25, 22:55 GMTRestricted - External Barclays | Lennar Corp. FIGURE 1. Key Results Barclays | Lennar Corp. Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Matthew Bouley, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072. The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect