2029年全球药物使用展望：增加获取、使用和支出

Increasing Access, Use, and Spending Introduction Increasing availability and usage of medicines, and the associated amountbeing spent, have become central issues in health policy and internationaltrade discussions in recent years, including the potential reshaping of globalmarkets and drug pricing that is being proposed by the new U.S. administration.Breakthrough therapies launched over the past decade for multiple diseases arereshaping patient care in many areas, while established patterns of spending andusage continue to highlight differences in access and pricing across countries. The largest driver of medicine spending growth throughthe next five years is still expected to be the availabilityand use in developed markets of innovative therapeuticsand offset by losses of exclusivity and the lower costsof generics and biosimilars. Traditionally, growth in theuse of innovative medicine has occurred mostly in theyears immediately following launch, whereas in recentyears and in the forecast outlook, growth is driven byolder products. This mix of spending growth betweenvolume-driven growth and mix-driven changes in thecost of therapy are showing most geographies shiftingto more expensive therapies, reflecting the broaderavailability and patient access to medicines with higherclinical value. meaningful discussion by all stakeholders around thevalue, cost, and role of medicines over the next five yearsin the context of overall healthcare spending. The study was produced independently by theIQVIA Institute for Human Data Science as a publicservice, without industry or government funding. Thecontributions to this report by Farhana Begum, TanyaBhardwaj, Saksham Bhardwaj, Srinidhi BC, Sydney Clark,Bhagyashree Sitaram Nawar, Urvashi Porwal, SarahRickwood, Alan Thomas, and many others at IQVIA aregratefully acknowledged. Find Out More If you wish to receive future reports from the IQVIAInstitute for Human Data Science or join our mailing list,visit iqviainstitute.org. In this report, we quantify the impact of these dynamicsand examine the spending and usage of medicines in2024 and the outlook to 2029, globally and for specifictherapy areas and countries or regions. We intend forthis report to provide an evidence-based foundation for MURRAY AITKENExecutive DirectorIQVIA Institute for Human Data Science REFERENCING THIS REPORT Please use this format when referencing content from this report:Source: IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science. The Global Use of Medicines Outlook through 2029: Increasing Access, Use, and SpendingAvailable from www.iqviainstitute.org ©2025 IQVIA and its affiliates. All reproduction rights, quotations, broadcasting, publications reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced ortransmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, withoutexpress written consent of IQVIA and the IQVIA Institute. The Global Use of Medicines Outlook through 2029: Increasing Access, Use, and Spending Table of Contents Overview2Availability of novel medicines5Outlook for the use of medicines11Therapy area historic drivers of medicine use17Spending and growth by regions and key countries29Key therapy areas49Notes on sources61Definitions & Methodology62References64About the authors65About the Institute67 Overview approved for multiple indications. In the U.S., indicationexpansions accounted for 1,092 additional approveduses for the more than 500 NAS approved in the U.S.in the past decade. For U.S. patients, expanding theapproved uses for medicines in the years followinginitial approval has had significant impact on treatmentoptions and has influenced the applications andapprovals in other countries where launches are typicallylater than in the U.S. Significant usage shifts and spending growthacceleration that is taking place in some geographiesand slowing in others became apparent in 2024 and havecontributed to an outlook for medicine spending through2029 unchanged at 5-8% CAGR, bringing global spendingon medicines at invoice prices to $2.4Tn. In aggregate,global health systems have demonstrated remarkableresilience in the face of the pandemic, global inflation,and regional conflicts, and have moved forward to adoptnovel therapies and increase usage. Overall, global useand spending on medicines is exceeding pre- pandemicgrowth rates and is expected to continue significantlyabove those trends through 2029. OUTLOOK FOR THE USE OF MEDICINES The global use of medicines — measured using WorldHealth Organization defined daily doses (DDDs) — hasbeen relatively flat since 2021 and is expected to growon average 0.8% annually through 2029, slower than the2.6% in the prior five years and resulting in no growthwhen adjusted for population. Medicine use in LatinAmerica and Asia has grown more rapidly than otherregions, and this trend will continue through 2029.Per capita use of medicines is typically correlated