低碳创新的驱动因素和宏观经济影响：跨国探索（英）

The Drivers andMacroeconomic ImpactsofLow-CarbonInnovation: A Cross-Country Exploration Zeina Hasna, Henry Hatton, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim,Kamiar Mohaddes, and Samuel Pienknagura WP/25/130 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025JUN IMF Working PaperResearchDepartment The Drivers and Macroeconomic Impacts ofLow-CarbonInnovation: A Cross-Country ExplorationPrepared byZeina Hasna,Henry Hatton, Florence Jaumotte,Jaden Kim,Kamiar Mohaddes,and SamuelPienknagura Authorized for distribution by Antonio SpilimbergoJune2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper investigates how climate policies affect low-carbon innovation (as measured bypatents) and assesses the link between such innovation and economic activity. Climate policies, includinginternational cooperation, spur both specific and overall innovation, with regulations, emissions-tradingsystems, and expenditure measures such as R&D subsidies and feed-in tariffs being particularly impactful. Inturn, low-carbon innovation raises economic activity as much as other types of innovation and pasttechnological revolutions. However, the mechanisms are different: low-carbon innovation increases capitalaccumulation, while other types of innovation increase total factor productivity (TFP). RECOMMENDED CITATION:Hasna, Zeina, Henry Hatton, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, Kamiar Mohaddes,and Samuel Pienknagura. 2025.“The Drivers and Macroeconomic Impacts of Low-Carbon Innovation: ACross-Country Exploration”, IMF Working Paper No. 2025/130. WORKING PAPERS The Drivers and MacroeconomicImpacts ofLow-CarbonInnovation: A Cross-CountryExploration Prepared byZeina Hasna, Henry Hatton, Florence Jaumotte,Jaden Kim,Kamiar Mohaddes, andSamuel Pienknagura* Contents 1Introduction 2Literature Review10 2.1(Green) Innovation and Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112.2Climate Policies and Green Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .122.3Bridging the two strands of literature and our contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 3Data14 4.1Empirical Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .184.2Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204.3Additional Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204.3.1Sectoral Heterogeneity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204.3.2Channels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .214.3.3Comparison with the ICT Revolution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .234.4Robustness of the Main Results to Additional Controls and Instrumental Variables Esti-mation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 5The Role of Climate Policies in Fostering Green Innovation27 5.1Empirical Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .275.2Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .285.3Additional Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .305.3.1Priority Filings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .305.3.2Heterogeneity by Policy Instrument. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .305.3.3Role of International Coordination and Cooperation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 5.4Robustness of the Main Result and Instrumental Variation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34 6Conclusion 35 AAdditional Data A-1 B.1Parsimonious Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-2B.2ICT Revolution Period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-4B.3Robustness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-6B.3.1Controlling for Correlation between Green and Non-green Patents. . . . . . . . .A-6B.3.2Controlling for Growth Expectations and/or Change in Policies . . . . . . . . . . .A-7B.3.3Instrumental Variables Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-13 CThe Role of Climate Policies in Fostering Green Innovation - Additional Results andRobustnessA-17 C.1Parsimonious Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-17C.2Breakdown into Policy Subcateg