航天国防政府服务2024年回顾/2025年展望

2024 Year in Review / 2025 Outlook W I N T E R2 0 2 5 Learn More 2024 saw a steady increase in aerospace, defense and government services (ADG) deal activity, drivenby positive long-term fundamentals across the sector and a stabilization of global economic headwinds US defense budget prioritized critical next-gencapabilities to deter and defeat near-peeradversaries, with a likely final round of fundingfor Ukraine Continued growth in commercial airtravel, albeit at a slower pace than inprior cycles Increased air travel and delays in newaircraft deliveries drove strong demand foraftermarket parts and services Continued investment in the modernization andtransformation of government IT systems Aircraft deliveries declined due to ongoingBoeing challenges, but backlog remains at ornear record highs M&A activity increased due to moderatinginterest rates and strong buyer appetite, butremained below the historical average Growth in DoD and global defense budgetsin the wake of heightened security threatsand continued global unrest Transaction multiples trended up whileaerospace stocks generally outperformed anddefense/govcon stocks underperformed ADG deal activity is expected to accelerate across most of the sector, driven by the Trumpadministration’s pro-business policies, improving economic conditions, and continued abundance of debtand equity capital Global defense spending expected to rise in theface of near-peer global threats and a focus onmodernization and next-gen technologies Commercial air travel expected to increasewith business travel offsetting softness inconsumer travel Rising uncertainty for government servicescontractors under DOGE, though exactramifications are yet to play out Aftermarket part and service providers willcontinue to benefit from an aging fleet ADG M&A activity expected to strengthen due toincreased economic confidence and availability ofcapital, as well as pent-up pressures on privateequity to deploy capital Commercial aircraft deliveries expected toincrease 15% as Airbus and Boeing work offrecord or near record high backlog Shift in strategic priorities for the US under theTrump Administration, as part of an “AmericaFirst” policy Space sector M&A activity expected to continueits strong pace, as commercial space providerslower costs and increase launch accessibility ADG M&A Deal Volume and Value Deal volume across the ADG industry increased 13% in 2024 but remained below historical averages ADG M&A Valuation and Buyer Trends M&A Transaction Multiples Increased in 2024 to the Highest Level Since 2021 •Valuation multiples for completed transactions increased from 10.3x in 2023 to 13.1x in 2024 due to a decline in interest rates, an increase in theavailability of debt financing and favorable supply and demand dynamics •Private equity and private-equity-backed strategic buyers represented the majority (53%) of completed transactions as strategic buyers remainedsomewhat cautious and private equity firms held record capital reserves that needed to be deployed 2024 M&A Activity by Subsector Aerospace, Defense and Government Services Each Witnessed an Uptick in M&A in 2024 •The Government Services sector experienced a 26% increase in M&A deal activity in 2024 driven by an influx of private equity money into the segment, ownerdesires to exit prior to a new administration, and potential positioning ahead of new Small Business Administration (SBA) rules that take effect in 2026 •Aerospace saw a more modest 8% increase in activity in 2024, while Defense was relatively flat ADG Public Company Trading Performance Commercial Aerospace Highlights Air Travel Continues to Grow, Albeit at a Slower Pace •Commercial air travel has continued its steady climb upward, withseasonally adjusted revenue passenger miles (RPM) reaching 94.7billion in November 2024, which marks a 2.3% increase overNovember 2023 and an 11.1% increase over November 2022 •During the 2024 holiday season, the number of travelers passingthrough TSA checkpoints increased roughly 7% relative to the sameperiod last year •While air travel has continued to rise, it has done so at a slower paceas post-COVID revenge spending has come to an end, and higherinterest rates and inflation weigh on consumers’ propensity to spend •In 2025, commercial air travel is expected to continue to rise, albeit ata slower pace than recent years, as a resurgence in business travel isexpected to offset flat or declining consumer demand •On a global basis, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) isprojecting the number of air travelers to increase 6.7% in 2025 Commercial Aerospace Highlights Aircraft Deliveries Declined in 2024 Due to Boeing’s Challenges but Are Expected to Rebound in 2025 •Total commercial aircraft deliveries declined 11% in 2024 due toBoeing’s continued struggles •Airbus deliveries increased and are approaching pre-COVID levelswhile Boeing significantly lags behind due to continued productioniss