能源周报（20250630-20250706）：OPEC+8月继续增产54.8万桶、日，本周油价震荡运行

基础化工2025年07月06日推荐 （维持）证券分析师：杨晖邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360522050001证券分析师：吴宇邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360524010002证券分析师：陈俊新邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360525040001行业基本数据股票家数(只)490总市值(亿元)42,481.40流通市值(亿元)37,730.76相对指数表现%1M6M绝对表现3.9%12.9%相对表现1.0%7.4%相关研究报告《化工行业新材料周报（20250623-20250629）：本周新材料价格上涨靠前品种：SAF欧洲、SAF中国、环氧树脂》2025-06-29《基础化工行业周报（20250623-20250629）：本周Henry天然气、双氧水、丁酮价格涨幅居前》2025-06-29《能源周报（20250623-20250629）：以伊冲突停火，本周油价下跌》2025-06-2924/0724/0924/1125/0225/042024-07-08~2025-07-04基础化工沪深300华创证券研究所 -8%4%16%28% 占比%0.064.234.7912M22.0%6.4%25/07 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号目录一、投资策略...........................................................................................................................5（一）原油.......................................................................................................................5（二）动力煤...................................................................................................................5（三）双焦.......................................................................................................................6（四）天然气...................................................................................................................6（五）油服.......................................................................................................................7二、主要能源价格变化情况...................................................................................................7三、原油：供给有限叠加地缘冲突加剧，原油价格或将维持高位震荡...........................9四、供给变动赋予动力煤价格弹性，双焦在政策支持下有企稳预期.............................12（一）动力煤：港口持续去库，迎峰度夏驱动煤价反弹.........................................12（二）双焦：下游阶段性补库，市场止跌企稳.........................................................17五、天然气：供需失衡短期难破局，海内外气价分化加剧.............................................20六、油服：政策加码与高油价共振，油服行业景气回升.................................................23七、风险提示.........................................................................................................................25 2 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号图表目录图表1本周华创化工行业指数75.46，环比-1.56%，同比-23.70%..................................7图表2行业价差百分位为过去10年的1.68%，环比+1.16%...........................................8图表3本周布伦特原油价格下跌（美元/桶）....................................................................8图表4本周动力煤价格持平（元/吨）................................................................................8图表5本周能源价格涨跌汇总.............................................................................................8图表6 5月欧佩克原油产量环比上涨（百万桶/日）.......................................................10图表7上周美国原油产量环比下滑（百万桶/日）..........................................................10图表8美国原油产量增速与钻机活跃度关系...................................................................10图表9上周美国炼油开工率环比上行（%）....................................................................10图表10上周美国原油库存量上涨（百万桶）.................................................................10图表11上周美国汽油库存量下滑（百万桶）.................................................................10图表12本周Brent原油价格下跌（美元/桶）.................................................................11图表13本周WTI原油基金净多头持仓数量下跌............................................................11图表14本周秦皇岛港口均价环比+0.88%（元/吨）........................................................13图表15本周坑口煤价格环比+0.37%（元/吨）................................................................13图表16本周印尼煤Q3800价格环比持平（元/吨）.......................................................13图表17本周NewcastleQ6000环比+0.76% (美元/吨)......................................................13图表18本周煤炭沿海运价综合指数环比-5.51%..............................................................13图表19本周三峡水流量环比+17.90%（立方米/秒）......................................................13图表20本周环渤海九港库存环比-9.22%（万吨）..........................................................14图表21本周南方港口合计库存环比-1.47%（万吨）......................................................14图表22本周煤炭重点电厂日耗量环比+5.02% (万吨).....................................................14图表23本周煤炭重点电厂库存可用天数环比-0.7天......................................................14图表24本周日照准一价格环比持平（元/吨）................................................................17图表25本周山西港口主焦煤价格环比持平（元/吨）....................................................17图表26本周焦煤样本钢厂库存环比+1.03%（万吨）.....................................................17图表27本周焦炭样本钢厂库存环比+1.60% (万吨).........................................................17图表28本周焦煤港口库存环比-5.19%（万吨）..............................................................18图表29本周螺纹钢价格环比+2.91%（元/吨）................................................................18图表30本周247家钢厂日均铁水产量环比-0.64% (万吨)..............................................18图表31上周美国天然气库存增加（Bcf）........................................................................21图表32本周欧洲天然气库存增加（Bcf）........................................................................21图表33本周欧洲天然气价格下降（美元/百万英热）....................................................21 3 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号4图表34本周国内LNG出厂价格下上涨（元/吨）..........................................................21图表35上周欧洲