能源周报（20250526-20250601）：OPEC+7月维持增产幅度，本周油价下跌

基础化工2025年06月02日推荐 （维持）证券分析师：杨晖邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360522050001证券分析师：吴宇邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360524010002证券分析师：陈俊新邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360525040001行业基本数据股票家数(只)489总市值(亿元)42,141.11流通市值(亿元)37,352.82相对指数表现%1M6M绝对表现2.1%-4.0%相对表现0.3%-2.1%相关研究报告《能源周报（20250519-20250525）：美伊核谈再起波澜，OPEC或持续增产，本周油价震荡》2025-05-25《基础化工行业周报（20250519-20250525）：本周三唑锡、烯草酮、煤焦油价格涨幅居前；关税矛盾缓和带来补库效应》2025-05-25《化工行业新材料周报（20250519-20250525）：小米发布自研芯片“玄戒O1”；本周电子级氮气、氧2025-05-2524/0624/0824/1025/0125/032024-06-03~2025-05-30基础化工沪深300华创证券研究所 气涨价》-18%-6%6%19% 占比%0.064.264.7512M2.5%-4.3%25/05 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号目录一、投资策略.....................................................................................................................5（一）原油.........................................................................................................................5（二）动力煤.....................................................................................................................5（三）双焦.........................................................................................................................6（四）天然气.....................................................................................................................6（五）油服.........................................................................................................................7二、主要能源价格变化情况.............................................................................................7三、原油：供给有限叠加地缘冲突加剧，原油价格或将维持高位震荡.....................9四、供给变动赋予动力煤价格弹性，双焦在政策支持下有企稳预期.......................12（一）动力煤：港口持稳观望，电厂日耗回升...........................................................12（二）双焦：焦炭二次提降落地，铁水产量拐头.......................................................16五、天然气：供需失衡短期难破局，海内外气价分化加剧.......................................20六、油服：政策加码与高油价共振，油服行业景气回升...........................................23七、风险提示...................................................................................................................26 2 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号图表目录图表1本周华创化工行业指数77.87，环比-1.21%，同比-23.02%..................................7图表2行业价差百分位为过去10年的1.35%，环比+0.14%...........................................8图表3本周布伦特原油价格震荡（美元/桶）....................................................................8图表4本周动力煤价格持平（元/吨）................................................................................8图表5本周能源价格涨跌汇总.............................................................................................8图表6 4月欧佩克原油产量环比下跌（百万桶/日）.......................................................10图表7上周美国原油产量环比上涨（百万桶/日）..........................................................10图表8美国原油产量增速与钻机活跃度关系...................................................................10图表9上周美国炼油开工率环比上行（%）....................................................................10图表10上周美国原油库存量下跌（百万桶）.................................................................10图表11上周美国汽油库存量下滑（百万桶）.................................................................10图表12本周Brent原油价格下跌（美元/桶）.................................................................11图表13本周WTI原油基金净多头持仓数量上涨............................................................11图表14本周秦皇岛港口煤均价环比-0.03%（元/吨）.....................................................13图表15本周坑口煤价格环比+0.93%（元/吨）................................................................13图表16本周印尼煤Q3800价格环比持平（元/吨）.......................................................13图表17本周NewcastleQ6000环比+1.01% (美元/吨)......................................................13图表18本周煤炭沿海运价综合指数环比-3.08%..............................................................13图表19本周三峡水流量环比+7.47%（立方米/秒）........................................................13图表20本周环渤海九港库存环比-4.84%（万吨）..........................................................14图表21本周南方港口合计库存环比-0.78%（万吨）......................................................14图表22本周煤炭重点电厂日耗量环比+10.55% (万吨)...................................................14图表23本周煤炭重点电厂库存可用天数环比-2.1天......................................................14图表24本周日照准一价格环比-3.42%（元/吨） .............................................................17图表25本周山西港口主焦煤价格环比-2.31%(元/吨)......................................................17图表26本周焦煤样本钢厂库存环比-1.50%（万吨）......................................................17图表27本周焦炭样本钢厂库存环比-0.91% (万吨)..........................................................17图表28本周焦煤港口库存环比+1.51%（万吨）.............................................................18图表29本周螺纹钢价格环比-0.95%（元/吨）.................................................................18图表30本周247家钢厂日均铁水产量环比-0.69% (万吨)..............................................18图表31本周美国天然气库存增加（Bcf）........................................................................21图表32本周欧洲天然气库存增加（Bcf）.........................................................................21图表33本周欧洲天然气价格下降（美元/百万英热）....................................................21 3 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号4图表34本周国内LNG出厂价格下降（元/吨）...........................................................