欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）与中国钢铁行业低碳转型的互动分析模型构建

关于 iGDP绿色创新发展研究院（Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress），简称 : 研究院（iGDP），是专注绿色低碳发展的战略咨询平台，2014 年成立于北京，旨在成为具领先专业素养和独立影响力的国际化智库。研究院根植我国地方绿色低碳实践，面向全球应对气候变化进程，为决策者、投资者和社区提供具有国际视野和前瞻思考的解决方案及公益性知识产品。关于作者刘雪野绿色创新发展研究院绿色经济政策项目主任 / 高级分析师洪佳玲绿色创新发展研究院高级分析师陆小彬绿色创新发展研究院顾问致谢本研究由绿色创新发展研究院统筹撰写，由能源基金会提供资金支持。研究团队感谢以下专家在项目研究过程中做出的贡献（按姓名首字母顺序排列）：常世彦清华大学能源环境经济研究所副教授陈小瑜冶金工业经济发展研究中心低碳研究所所长董金池南京大学博士刘颖昊中国宝武钢铁集团中央研究院 – 低碳技术总监莫争春绿色创新发展研究院董事张光明冶金工业信息标准研究院 - 低碳研究项目主管此外，iGDP 汪燕辉、杨鹂、李鑫迪、陈美安、奚溪和肖凝也为项目研究提供了重要的支持。免责声明引用建议详细方法学及参数可联系作者获取 liuxueye@igdp.cnhongjialing@igdp.cn本报告内容和观点仅代表作者的个人理解和观点，旨在加强相关领域的讨论交流，不代表支持方、作者所属机构、调研专家学者的立场和观点。本报告内容采用数据和信息均来自公开的信息和渠道，我们力求准确和完整，但难免偶有疏漏，敬请谅解并指正。刘雪野，洪佳玲，陆彬，莫争春※. 欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）与中国钢铁行业低碳转型的互动分析模型构建 . 202505. [R]. 北京：绿色创新发展研究院 . 目 录执行摘要···························································································IExecutive Summary···············································································IIICBAM 政策专用术语及示例··········································································1第一章研究目的与研究方法··········································································21.1 研究背景·········································································21.2 文献综述·········································································31.3 研究目的·········································································51.4 研究方法·········································································6第二章建模关键点··················································································82.1 CBAM 政策规则有待细化和明确·····················································82.2 CBAM 与中国钢铁行业减碳路径的复杂互动············································92.3 CBAM 规则制定未充分反映中国钢铁行业的复杂特性····································9第三章CBAM-CST 模型概述········································································103.1 模型简介·········································································113.2 关键公式·········································································133.3 情景设置·········································································15第四章影响 CBAM 费用的关键不确定性因素分析······················································184.1 免费配额基准值的退出与欧盟碳中和目标如何影响 EU ETS 价格···························184.2 CBAM 覆盖范围内钢铁产品的免费配额基准值如何与产品一一对应·························194.3 CBAM 免费配额基准值如何设定·····················································214.4 中国碳市场免费配额基准值如何设定与退出············································214.5 中国钢铁对欧盟出口量如何预测······················································234.6 中国钢铁企业“已有效的支付的碳成本”如何被欧盟认可···································254.7 通胀和汇率的不确定性如何影响 CBAM 费用···········································25第五章研究贡献、局限与下一步计划·································································285.1 本研究系列报告···································································285.2 模型创新·········································································285.3 模型局限·········································································295.4 下一步研究计划···································································29引 用····························································································30 图目录表目录表 1-1 CBAM 相关文献综述表·····································································································4表 3-1 CBAM-CST 模型输入参数···································································································12表 3-1 CBAM-CST 模型输入参数···································································································12表 3-3 现有情景矩阵示意表·······································································································17表 4-1 CBAM 钢铁行业相关的免费配额基准值·······················································································20表 4-2 CBAM 钢铁行业相关的免费配额基准值与钢铁产品对应表·······································································20图 4-1 不同情景下 2020-2050 年欧盟 EU ETS 碳价格预测············································································19图 3-1 本研究研究框架···········································································································11图 3-2 CBAM 公式···············································································································13图 3-3 CBAM 与中国钢铁行业低碳转型互动的情景设定逻辑图·········································································16图 4-2 尚未公布免费配额基准值的 CBAM 涵盖钢铁产品（按进口量）的比例（绿色和灰色部分）···········································20图 4-3 中国全国碳市场免费配额基准值预测 - 工艺法与产品法对比（2025-2040 年）·····················································22图 4-4 EU ETS 免费配额基准值预测 - 工艺法与产品法对比············································································22图 4-5 2000-2050 年欧盟从中国进口 CBAM 钢铁产品的贸易量········································································23图 4-6 2000-2050 年欧盟从中国进口 CBAM 钢铁产品的贸易量········································································24图 4-7 欧元兑人民币汇率·········································································································25图 4-8 20