电子行业深度报告：端侧AI重构终端生态：硬件升级驱动换机潮，多设备协同催生商业模式跃迁

收盘价（元）EPS（元）2024A2025E2026E2024A 2025E33.241.842.362.8318.0374.502.883.704.4825.8623.720.761.121.4231.08359.273.847.7210.9693.6648.160.400.811.24119.02 东吴证券研究所1/292025年06月26日证券分析师陈海进执业证书：S0600525020001chenhj@dwzq.com.cn证券分析师陈妙杨执业证书：S0600525020002chenmy@dwzq.com.cn《可穿戴SoC，从大厂自研窥见战略纵深——大厂自研三两事系列》2025-06-25《Marvell上调数据中心TAM，关注ASIC趋势对铜连接市场的驱动-算力2025-06-22投资评级2026E11.75买入16.63买入16.70买入32.78买入38.84买入2024/10/252025/2/232025/6/24电子沪深300 行业走势相关研究周报》PE14.0820.1421.1846.5459.462024/6/26 -12%-6%0%6%12%18%24%30%36%42%48% 内容目录1.智能体全新交互中枢，终端流量入口重塑......................................................................................51.1.智能体定义：决策+记忆+规划+工具......................................................................................51.2.智能体落地终端，超级入口迎来重塑窗口期.........................................................................61.3.端侧AI部署加速落地，功能形态与技术路径初步成型......................................................71.3.1. PC/手机端承接系统枢纽，可穿戴设备探索形态突破..................................................71.3.2.技术路径：“端优先”成趋势，可穿戴侧重协同算力...............................................102.手机端侧AI发展驱动硬件升级，有望成为新一轮换机潮核心推力..........................................132.1.手机厂商端侧大模型布局对比及核心技术路径梳理...........................................................132.2.推演未来：多模态与跨应用驱动模型扩容，参数规模与压缩算法面临双重挑战...........152.3.算力、存力、电池和其它结构件协同进化，硬件成为大模型落地关键...........................172.4. AI成为新一轮智能手机换机潮的核心驱动...........................................................................203. AI终端重塑价值链：从硬件销售到智能生态................................................................................233.1.商业模式重塑：订阅变现+产品协同，AI终端引领价值体系重构...................................233.1.1.多设备协同驱动AI终端生态成型，可穿戴产品成差异化关键入口......................233.1.2.订阅收入成为增长引擎，推动终端厂商盈利模式转型.............................................233.2.端侧厂商的传统商业模式在智能体时代会如何变化...........................................................243.2.1.订阅收入占比增大.........................................................................................................243.2.2.跨平台协同与多设备智能体生态加强.........................................................................243.2.3.本地化适配能力有望从“加分项”演变为厂商核心护城河.....................................253.2.4. AI驱动下的渠道模式转型：从售卖硬件到构建场景体验.........................................253.2.5.全产业链协同加速终端产品迭代与成本优化.............................................................264.投资建议............................................................................................................................................275.风险提示............................................................................................................................................28 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分东吴证券研究所3/29 图表目录图1：OpenAI定义的智能体架构.........................................................................................................5图2：Google定义的智能体架构..........................................................................................................5图3：AI时代入口形态的变化.............................................................................................................6图4：不同品牌手机代劳工作完成情况...............................................................................................8图5：端云协同智能计算的基本要素.................................................................................................11图6：可穿戴端侧的“端-边-云”架构..............................................................................................12图7：国内2025年3月移动端AI原生App活跃用户规模...........................................................14图8：AI综合助手类应用活跃用户数量最多...................................................................................14图9：终端AI设备向常驻式、无屏化具身智能体迈进..................................................................15图10：端侧大模型业务场景分析.......................................................................................................16图11：读取内存数据功耗远高于计算...............................................................................................18图12：高通Snapdragon 8 Gen3 AI任务性能每瓦提升40%.........................................................18图13：端侧大模型推理演进驱动硬件配置全面升级.......................................................................20图14：iPhone侧键唤醒GPT功能或带动结构件新需求.................................................................20图15：2023-2027E国内AI手机出货量及占比（亿只，%）........................................................20图16：全球智能手机换机率在2024年迎来拐点.............................................................................20图17：多模态感知赋能可穿戴设备个性化智能体验.......................................................................23图18：华为可穿戴新品将全部搭载原生鸿蒙系统...........................................................................25图19：小米Hypermind使设备能够主动了解用户需求并采取相应措施......................................25表1：智能体的定义与结构比较...........................................................................................................5表2：AI手机产品总结.........................................................................................................................7表3：AI PC产品总结......................................................................................................................