瑞穗日报

Jun 24, 2025 Whilethe uncertainty of tariffs is indeed worrying,the nature offrontloadingalso signals that a slowdown in the coming months maybecomeincreasinglyinevitable. Three Take-Aways 1)Iran's telegraphed retaliation viewed as de-escalatory signalwhichbuoyedrisksentimentsandsankBrentcrudeprices. China:Confidence? 2)DovishtonesfromFedofficialssuchasBowmanwhowasopentoJulycutalsoaidedfrontaidyieldstoglidelower. -China'slandsalesrevenueaswellasrealestaterelatedtaxrevenuereturnto a contraction in YoY terms for May which reflects thattremendousdifficultytoshoreupconfidenceinthepropertysector. 3)SingaporeCPIstayingbenignpavesthewayforstrongerfocusongrowthattheMAS'Julymeeting. -Authoritiescontinuetorolloutinitiativessuchasonlineandofflinehubswhichconsolidateprojectsandallowgreatertransparencyandefficiency.Nonetheless,widespreadconfidenceishardtoachieveasthehealthofdevelopersandpersistentslideinhomepricesmaykeepbuyersatbay.Ontheformer,Chinahasaddedrequirementsforstateownerdeveloperstoavoid defaultingon publiclyissueddebtthoughnone ofthem havedefaultedthusfarinsharpcontrasttoprivatesectordevelopers.Onthewhole,differentiateddemandacrosscitiesremainsparforthecourse. MACROTHEME:Signals -Lastnight,risksentimentsimprovedasIran'sresponsetotheUSattackonits nuclear facilities was seen as de-escalatory.Theirmissileattacks on US bases in Qatar were notified to both theAmericansandQatariswhichallowinterceptionandaverteddamage.Specifically,IransaidthattheattacksposesnodangertoQatarandwasfarfromresidentialareas. Yields(2Y:-4.5bp;10Y:-2.9bp;30Y:-1.6bp) -Consequently,US President Trump has announced Israel-Iranceasefirethismorningbycongratulatingthetwocountriesforhavingstamina,courageandintelligencetoend,whatshouldbecalledthe"The12DayWar".Thatsaid,therehasnotbeenanyresponsefromIranandIsrael. -USTyieldcurvebullsteepenedasfrontendyieldsledthedrop. Equities(Nasdaq:+0.9%;S&P500:+1.0%;Dow:+0.9%) -USequitiesroseacrosstheboard. FX(DXY:-0.3%) -InresponsetothereducedthreatofabroaderMiddleEastConflict,Brentcrude prices sank more than 7%toward US$70/barrelovernight.The decline was extended this morning as Brent crudepricesdroppedtowardsUS$68/barrel. -USDslippedasUSTyieldsslipped.EURsurgedtotest1.16.CADandNOKunderperformedasloweroilpricesweighed.USD/JPYmanagedtoretreatbackrelativelyunchangedaround146aftertesting148. -LowerenergypricesalsoassistedfrontendUSTyieldstodeclineamidmoredovishsignalsfromFedofficials.FollowingFedGovernorWaller,Vice Chair Michelle Bowman said that"should inflationpressuresremaincontained,Iwouldsupportloweringthepolicyrateassoonasournextmeeting..." -USD/SGDhasdivedloweredtoheadbelowmid-1.28andEM-Asiapeersareexpectedtorecoversomeofyesterday'slosses. SingaporeCPI:CautiousCelebrations -Singapore'sMayheadlineandcoreinflationcameinat0.8%YoYand0.6%YoYrespectively,edginglowerfromApril's0.9%and0.7%. -Meanwhile,Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was slightly morecautiousbynotalludingtoaspecificmeetingdespitesayingthatifwedonotseeinflationresultingfromtariffsincreases...thenithinkweshouldproceed(withratecuts). -Whilefoodinflationdeclinedfrom1.4%to1.1%YoYduetoaslowerpaceofnon-cookedfoodincreases,foodandbeverageservingservicesinflationedged higher to 1.2%in a reflection of the goods-servicesdivergence. -WewillgettohearfromFedChairPowelltonightasheistestifyingbeforeCongresswithmarketskeentosensehisreceptivenesstoaJulycut. -Thatsaid,thisdivergencewillnotbetroublingtotheMASwhowillbekeepingacloserwatchonthegrowthpathahead.Furthermore,giventheongoingSG60 celebrations domestically,discounts across goods andserviceswillaidtheheadlineandcoreinflationprintstoremainbenignandmayevenaidamodestconsumptionboost. -AcrosstheAtlantic,hiscounterpartattheECBLagardesaidthatpolicyis in a good position to navigate the uncertaincircumstancesandtheywillfollowadatadependentandmeetingbymeetingapproach. -Atthisjuncture,itisperhapsapttonotetheirpressstatementthatstates:"Whileglobalcrudeoilpriceshaveriseninrecentweeks,theyarefornowstillclosetotheaveragein2024".Inotherwords,energypriceswillneedtosurgehighertoexertaninflationaryimpact. -Shouldtheattentionshiftbacktowardstradegiventhatwearejustslightlymorethantwoweekstothereciprocaltariffsdeadline,itshouldbenotedthatKevinHassetsaidthatBessentandGreerareinconstantcontacttoensurethatthereisnodisruptioninrareearthsupplychain. -ShouldtheMiddleEastdevelopmentsremaincontained,thedebateongrowthwill focus on whether there is a need for further support withindicatorsshowing a mixed picture.Specifically,robust industrialproductioninAprilcontrastedagainstsharpdeclineinnon-oildomesticexportswhileretailsaleshadamildexpansion. -InAsia,datacontinuestoindicatesubstantialfrontloadingofexportstotheUSwithSouthKorea'sfirst20daysofJuneexportstotheUSgrowing4.3%YoYwhichwasalsoreflectedinthedataforVietnamandThailandintheMonthofMay. RESEARCHTEAM Vishnu Varathan | Serena Zhou | Tan Boon Heng | Tan Jing Yi MARKET COMMENTARY DISCLAIMER THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AND IS NOT INTENDED AS SUCH.Unle