摩根斯坦利-机器人技术释放，新时代来临

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ China's Emerging Frontiers Sheng ZhongEquity AnalystSheng.Zhong@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7821 Robotics Unleashed, A New Era Chelsea WangEquity AnalystJinlin.Wang@morganstanley.com Robotics penetration is accelerating, as mobility paired withintelligence is enabling new use cases. In this report we look atthe TAM for various robot types, future trends, and supply chainopportunities, with a focus on China. Lillian LouEquity AnalystLillian.Lou@morganstanley.com Andy Meng, CFAEquity AnalystAndy.Meng@morganstanley.com Tim HsiaoEquity AnalystTim.Hsiao@morganstanley.com Key Takeaways Hildy LingEquity AnalystHildy.Ling@morganstanley.com Empowered by AI, robots are expanding use cases with the development ofcollaborative abilities, and greater autonomy. Serena ChenResearch AssociateSerena.Chen@morganstanley.com We expect China's robot industry to double in the next four years through 2028,led by drones, mobile robots, and cobots. Carlos ChaiResearch AssociateCarlos.Chai@morganstanley.com Humanoids will be the largest robot category in the long term. Supply chain opportunities lie in both market growth and localization potential.Sensors, vision, motors, and reducers are attractive areas to explore. We present a stock list of China's potential value chain beneficiaries. A closer look at near-term opportunities in robotics:We believe humanoids willbe the largest robot category in the long term (see Humanoids: A $5 Trillion GlobalMarket), especially when AGI advances in the physical world. In the near term, withthe application of AI, sensors, and mobility, robots are expanding use cases rapidly infactories, warehouses, commercial services, and households. Those interested in AI,robotics, advanced manufacturing, and China's emerging frontiers should take a lookat this report, which explores opportunities in the fast-growing robotics industryand China's next-gen industrial upgrades. China IndustrialsAsia PacificIndustry ViewIn-Line China – the world's largest robotics market, with a strong growth outlook:In2024, China's robot market was about 40% of the global total, at US$47bn. Weestimate a 23% CAGR to US$108bn in 2028, with drones set to be the largestcategory at nearly 40% of the total. Cobots, mobile robots, and service robots arelikely to show the fastest growth, at CAGRs of 46%, 35%, and 25% respectively.China is not only the largest market but also is arguably the world's innovation hub,propelling cost efficiencies and next-gen robotics development. Robots have beenreshaping China's manufacturing and will have a deeper impact on society in futureas they become more intelligent, collaborative, and affordable. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Robot BoM – motors and batteries largest; sensors and vision to show highestgrowth:We estimate that 55% of robots globally are produced in China, with a US$40bn component TAM for robots in 2024; we forecast a 23% CAGR through 2028.Motors and batteries will be the largest TAMs by 2028, making up 13% and 17% oftotal BoM; we see the strongest growth potential in sensors and vision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Investment implications:We preferMideaandXiaomifor their multiple roboticsproducts with strong track records of product development and ecosystem building.Inovance, Horizon Robotics,andHesaiare the key supply chain players. The Story in Charts Exhibit 4:As of 2024, ~40% of the global robotics market is inChina – a figure that is likely to increase with China's fasteradoption of intelligent robots China Robot Market vs. Global (US$'bn) Exhibit 6:As robots gain autonomy and intelligence, sales ofall kinds of sensors and LiDAR should increase heading into2028 Stocks with exposure to China's robotics value chain Our screen of 21 stocks with exposure to China's robotics value chain is based on twoqualitative assessments, rather than valuation or quantitative measures: 1.For robot integrators, we prioritized the dominant players for each type of robot,with proven product competitiveness and brand impact, as well as tangibleoverseas expansion potential.2.For components, we targeted suppliers in large TAMs (e.g. motors, reducers,batteries), those benefiting from localization through market share gains, and/orthose with products critical to ro