云端动态：航空公司网络流量同比下降1%；美国应用程序用户数量同比持平

USA | Aerospace & Defense Electronics What's Up in the Clouds: Airline Web Traffic -1%Y-o-Y; US App Users Flat Y-o-Y What's Up in the Cloudscomplements ourWhat's Up in the Skiesseries and aimsto be a potential leading indicator of air traffic. We track web traffic data for50 global airline websites and 14 online travel agents. From May 31 to June 6,global airline and OTA web traffic by customer was -1% y-o-y (US traffic -4% y-o-y), while global traffic by airline location was -1% y-o-y (US -4% y-o-y). Most Interesting Item.In recent weeks, airlines have offered preliminary guidance for Q2, withTRASMs down ~3-4% y-o-y on avg on the weakening macro situation, consumer confidence andgov't travel spend weakness (up to 5% of sales). The Conference Board'sConsumer Confidence Indexrose 12.3pts in May, from 85.7 in April to 98.0 in May, well ahead of preliminary expectations for a1pt decline. This week's web and app traffic data suggests a potential increase in air travel demandwith US app users +7% m-o-m and global airline web visits +2% m-o-m (US Traffic +4% m-o-m).Although global airline and OTA web traffic remains lower on a y-o-y and T3M y-o-y basis, globalweb traffic by location of airline and customer was down just 4% this week on a T3M y-o-y basismatching its smallest decline of the year. For just the US group, web traffic was down 4% on a y-o-y basis, representing its smallest y-o-y decline of the year. US App Users Flat Y-o-Y In Week Beginning May 26 (Ex. 7).We track weekly mobile app users anddownloads for US-based airlines, incl American, Alaska, Delta, Frontier, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit,and United. We note unique weekly app users in the US are flat y-o-y and flat on a T3M-o-T3M basis.On a M-o-M basis, weekly users are up 7%. Looking at just the Big 4, app users are up 6% on a T3M-o-T3M basis, 6 pts ahead of the broader US group. Global Web Traffic Based on Location of Customer -1% Y-o-Y for Week of May 31 (Ex. 1).Webtraffic to airline websites and OTAs was down 1% y-o-y on a global basis in the most recent week,which also saw global web traffic +3% on a w-o-w basis, up 3% on a 2-week basis, and up 7% M-o-M. On a trailing-three-month basis (Mar '25 - Jun '25 vs Mar '24 - Jun '24), web traffic is down 4%y-o-y across the global group and down 8% for US customers. Looking only at the US, traffic wasdown 4% y-o-y, 3 pts behind the global group. The US saw w-o-w traffic up 3%, 2-week traffic up2%, and m-o-m traffic up 9%. Traffic by Location of Airline -1% Y-o-Y In Week Beginning May 31 (Ex. 2).From an airlineperspective, global booking interest is up 2% sequentially, flat on a 2-week basis, and +2% on an m-o-m basis. Global traffic was down 1% y-o-y. On a T3M y-o-y basis, traffic was down 4%. Traffic toUS airline sites was up 2% sequentially, down 4% y-o-y, and down 9% on a T3M y-o-y basis. Canadiantraffic was up 13% y-o-y (up 7% T3M). Web traffic to Middle Eastern carriers was down 8% y-o-y,while European airline site activity was up 2% y-o-y. Web traffic for airlines in Asia was up 4% y-o-y, with India traffic the best performing, up 14% y-o-y, while Singapore followed, +13% y-o-y. SouthKorea was the laggard, down 16% y-o-y. Sheila Kahyaoglu * | Equity Analyst +1 (212) 336-7216 | sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.com John Colantuoni * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8634 | jcolantuoni@jefferies.com Greg Konrad, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2391 | gkonrad@jefferies.com Ellen Page * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3381 | epage@jefferies.com 3-Week Lagging App Traffic 0.85 Correlated With TSA Throughput.As fliers tend to access airlineapps to monitor and check into upcoming flights, we consider weekly unique users of US airlineapps to be a forward indicator of TSA throughput or US air traffic. Dating back to 1/7/2019, 7-day rolling avg TSA throughput has a 0.85 correlation with 3-week lagging total weekly unique appusers. By plugging total app users from the week of May 26 (4.03MM users) into the slope-interceptformula in Ex. 3, we estimate average TSA throughput for week of June 9 - June 16 to be down3.7% y-o-y and up 2.0% sequentially. Kyle Wenclawiak * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-7671 | kwenclawiak@jefferies.com Conor Walters * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3395 | cwalters@jefferies.com Eegan McDermott * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3325 | emcdermott1@jefferies.com Aerospace & Defense ElectronicsEquity ResearchJune 11, 2025 1. Global Travel Site Visits Remain Healthy, butDuration Slows Somewhat We tracked web traffic data from the top 50 airlines globally, as well as 14 travel sites (Amex Travel,Booking.com, CheapFlights, CheapOair, CheapTickets, Concur, Expedia, Hotels.com, Hotwire, Kayak,Orbitz, Priceline, Student Universe, Trivago). We consider the average duration of a site visit and thetotal number of site visits each month, which have been highly correlated over the past three years.Given that most travel is booked online, the data should be a leading indicator of bookings for gl