AI智能总结
BT, TEF M&A, Spain pricing,Satellites We highlight latest research, news flow and significantobservations relevant to our stock coverage across European/CEEMEA Telecoms, and Global Towers/Satellites. Emerging Markets TelecomsNEUTRALEuropean Telecom ServicesNEUTRAL European Telecom ServicesMathieu Robilliard+44 (0)20 3134 3288mathieu.robilliard@barclays.comBBI, Paris •Fireside chat -Join us for a call with Andrew Belshaw and Bill Castell, the CEO/CFO of•Gamma Communications plc, on Friday, 20 June 2025 (2:00pm – 3:00pm London) •BT– CEO flags AI-driven restructuring beyond current cost plan, stresses Openreachspin-off•possible Maurice Patrick+44 (0)20 3134 3622maurice.patrick@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Telefonica– Sells Ecuador unit to Millicom for €330m• •Orange Spain– Set to hike fewtariffprices from July 20• Ganesha Nagesha+91 (0)22 6175 1712ganesha.nagesha@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Satellites -AST, Ligado and Viasat sign term sheet for L-band spectrum• Maxime Delaugerre+44 (0)20 3555 5672maxime.delaugerre@barclays.comBarclays, UK Detailed stories Fireside Chat with CEO/CFO of Gamma Communications plc Join us for a call with Andrew Belshaw and Bill Castell, the CEO/CFO of GammaCommunications plc, on Friday, 20 June 2025 (2:00pm – 3:00pm London) where we will deepdive the fundamentals of the business, and also discuss the outlook for the company. Elisa – Model Update We revise our estimates to reflect recent market dynamics. 1) Finland - we raise our MSRestimates to factor in the gradual impact of the price increases introduced last May. At the sametime, we adopt a more measured stance on FSR, leading to a revised FY25E growth outlook of c.+7% for MSR (excl. group eliminations) and c.+1% for FSR. 2) InternationalSoftwareServices -we increase our FY25 revenue growth forecast to c.+13% on a pro forma basis. As a result, weincrease our FY25E/FY26E revenue/Adj. EBITDA estimates by +0.5%/+0.2% and +1.8%/+0.5% to€2.34bn/€824m and €2.45bn/€872m, respectively. We now model FY25E/FY26E revenue growthof +4.6% (excluding €50m Sedepta revenue)/+4.5%, while we expect Adj. EBITDA to grow by+5.2%/+5.9% in the same period. We forecast comparable FCF of €380m in FY25E and €407m inFY26E, versus €357m in FY24. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 4.Completed: 16-Jun-25, 06:50 GMTReleased: 16-Jun-25, 06:51 GMTRestricted - External BT – CEO flags AI-driven restructuring beyond current cost plan, stresses Openreachspin-offpossible In a press interview, BT CEO Allison Kirkby led with a headline that artificial intelligence couldlead to deeper job reductions at the telecoms group over time. While BT had already announcedin May 2023 its intention to cut up to 55,000 jobs by 2030 (and £3bn costs), Ms Kirkby noted thatthose projections did not fully account for the transformative potential of AI, where she seesfurther possible potential savings beyond the existing plan. She also mentioned that a potentialsale of BT’s infrastructure arm, Openreach, could eventually be considered should its value notadequately be reflected in BT’s current share price, although this is not her preferred option(and would, in our view, come with a material pension/tax dis-synergy). In the article she alsosuggested BT Consumer would consider using AltNets in areas where Openreach building wouldbe uneconomical. We note BT has, to date, signalled no such intent, with Openreach set to buildeverywhere – in many ways this statement appears somewhat moot, given Openreach plans toroll out to c30m of the c32m UK homes by 2030. Source: Reuters (13 June 2025) Telefonica – Sells Ecuador unit to Millicom for €330m Telefónica has closed the sale of its Ecuador unit to Millicom for $380m (around €330m). Theclosing of the transaction is subject to regulatory approvals. This transaction is part of theTelefónica Group’s strategy of reducing exposure in Hispanoamerica. Hispam is the mainproblem child among Telefonica assets and the exit is accelerating: TEF has sold Argentina,Peru, Uruguay since the beginning of the year, and has signed a deal with Millicom to sellColombia. We view the exit from HispAm positively as TEF is not earning its cost of capital in theregion and there is no path to reach it, in our view. As we detailed in our research Positivesurprise on FCF guidance, strategic uncertainties dominate (19 May 2025) the 2025 operationaloutlook is reassuring (aside from leverage, which i