电子游戏：Fornightly第16卷：RBLX创下新纪录；更新行业模型

USA | Interactive Entertainment Video Games Fortnitely Vol. 16: RBLX Sets aNew Record; Updating Industry Model Welcome to our biweekly recap of all-things video games. We are now throughSummer Game Fest and have a near-full picture of the holiday title slate.Borderlands 4 (TTWO) pre-orders are live, with a $70 base price, but with $100& $130 deluxe editions including add-on content. Grow A Garden set anotherRBLX record with 16M users, now ahead of Fortnite peak users. We also updateour game industry projections lower, moving GTA VI to 2026, but a strongerSwitch 2. Borderlands 4 is $70.Pre-orders for Borderlands 4 are now live, keeping its September 12 releasedate. With games such asMario Kart WorldandThe Outer Worlds 2moving to $80, there was a livelydebate ifBorderlandswould do the same, but we agree $70 is the correct price. Primarily, as its usualDLC and premium versions fill that up-selling role. There is a $100 Deluxe Edition that includes fourpost-launch DLC packs and additional cosmetic items, as well as a $130 Super Deluxe Edition thatincludes all that plus two additional new larger story DLC packs including new playable charters.Borderlands 4, as usual, has a robust post-lunch content schedule, and a $70 price helps maximizethat funnel. Source: FactSet, Jefferies Grow A Garden harvests a new record for RBLX.This Saturday, Grow A Garden set a new recordfor concurrent users inside a Roblox experience at 16M players according to Romonitor. TheseSaturday morning spikes are short-lived as players check out the new weekly update for Grow AGarden, and are also a concerted effort coordinated through social media to set these new records,but are nonetheless still impressive. For context, the peak players in Fortnite have been 15.3Mfor the season-ending Marvel event in 2020, and 14.3M in Nov 2024 for a virtual concert. Outsidethese Saturday RBLX spikes, Grow A Garden players over the weekend ranged 2M-4M, over 4x thenext largest Roblox Experience. 2Q RBLX user numbers will be strong, with investor conversationsshifting to: if users stay this high into July, how will mgmt guide 3Q against tough y/y comps? Switch 2 third-party starts strong.Nintendo Switch 2 sold over 3.5M units in its first four daysmaking it the fastest selling console launch ever. Looking at the first week of eShop data, the releasetitle of Mario Kart World is predictably the #1 most downloaded game, but interestingly, CD Projekts'Cyberpunk 2077 is #2, with Capcom's Street Fighter 6 #10, and EA's Split Fiction #11. A decentshowing for 3P titles from the more powerful device. TTWO is supporting Switch 2 with 4 titles thisyear, includingBorderlands 4.Continued 3P support is likely contingent on titles such as Cyberpunkand Borderlands continuing to launch well on the platform, along with how well Nintendo promotes3P games in the eShop and marketing campaigns. Updating industry expectations.With the Switch 2 launch strong and GTA VI moving out of 2025,along with Newzoo publishing its recent PC/Console games report, we are updating our industrymodel. We lower our 2025 mobile growth to 2% from 3%, with some incremental title headwindsand Sensor Tower showing spending flat YTD, however we expect web stores & DTC to make upthe balance. We bring down PC growth to 2% from 4%, in line with Newzoo, but could see upsidefrom 2H titles. We bring down console growth to 5% from 7%, primarily moving ~$2B into 2026from GTA, but still seeing the strongest category growth from Switch 2 and the improved 2025 titleslate vs. 2024. We now expect 2026 to be the year that crosses 2021's high watermark from a fullyear of Switch 2 and GTA VI, along with continued growth in mobile. James Heaney * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-1171 | jheaney@jefferies.com Ed Alter * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8702 | ealter@jefferies.com Salil Sanjiv * | Equity Associate(212) 284-8119 | ssanjiv@jefferies.com Interactive EntertainmentEquity ResearchJune 17, 2025 Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Analyst Certification: I, James Heaney, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Ed Alter, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Salil Sanjiv, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my