老供给与新需求，结构蕴含机遇——转债半年度策略

请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com联系人李浩时lihs@ctsec.com联系人郑惠文zhenghw01@ctsec.com相关报告2025-06-12高峰》2025-06-112025-06-09 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1持续聚焦中美博弈与内需提振，延续哑铃布局...................................................................................42不确定性环境下转债性价比凸显，波动支撑强估值...........................................................................53格局变化提速，关注“类银行”转债的平替机会...............................................................................63.1银行转债加速退出，转债供给难言乐观..........................................................................................63.2“老供给”环境下市场波动放大，成长风格更明显......................................................................73.3更偏好低波的市场，部分转债投资或重回“被动化”..................................................................83.4供需错配，关注“类银行底仓”的潜在机会................................................................................104下半年转债信用问题扰动有限.............................................................................................................115持续关注条款机会.................................................................................................................................126风险提示.................................................................................................................................................13图1.规模以上工业企业营收及利润累计同比.............................................................................................4图2. PMI新订单指数.....................................................................................................................................4图3.转债+宽基股指最大回撤&夏普比.......................................................................................................5图4.转债+宽基股指收益表现......................................................................................................................5图5.分平价溢价率表现.................................................................................................................................5图6.可转债ETF份额和百元溢价率...........................................................................................................5图7.历年新券上市节奏.................................................................................................................................6图8.历年上市新券数量和规模.....................................................................................................................6图9.同意注册+上市委通过标的..................................................................................................................6图10.各上市审核环节存量券.......................................................................................................................6图11.新券上市审核节奏...............................................................................................................................7图12.转债上市审核环节历年周期...............................................................................................................7图13.转债市场规模变化...............................................................................................................................7图14.银行转债2023年下半年以来无一级市场进度.................................................................................7图15.银行转债波动远低于其他转债...........................................................................................................8图16.重仓银行转债基金持有转债规模更大...............................................................................................8图17.中证转债年化波动率&不含银行波动率...........................................................................................8图表目录内容目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图18.中证转债指数&不含银行中证转债指数...........................................................................................8图19.可转债ETF份额2025年上半年大幅下降.......................................................................................9图20.保险、年金2025年上半年转债持有量稳健.....................................................................................9图21.银行转债规模和银行理财持有转债数量...........................................................................................9图22.当前转债估值&价格中位数...............................................................................................................9图23.银行转债属于正股和转债“双低波”.............................................................................................10图24.“类银行底仓”筛选说明.................................................................................................................10图25.“类银行底仓”转债筛选结果.........................................................................................................11图26.存量转债市场余额.............................................................................................................................11图27. 2025年内到期的可转债.....................................................................................................................11图28.历年转债评级下调数量.....................................................................................................................12图29.历年各行业评级下调转债数量.......................................................................