核心业务表现强劲，AI持续赋能

Page |1| PHILLIPCAPITALHONGKONGRESEARCH騰訊控股(00700.HK)核心業務表現強勁，AI持續賦能中國|遊戲|互聯網業績摘要2025年第一季度，公司實現總營收1800億元（人民幣，下同），同比增長12.9%；盈利能力方面，未經調整經營利潤為576億元，同比增長9.5%，經營利潤率由去年同期33.0%微降至32.0%。未經調整期內盈利為497億元，同比增長16.6%。分部收入方面，1Q25增值服務業務收入實現強勁增長，同比增長17.1%至921億元，主要由於本土市場遊戲去年低基數貢獻。營銷服務收入同比增長20.2%至319億元，得益於用戶參與度提高、廣告平臺持續的AI升級以及微信交易生態系統的優化。金融科技及企業服務業務收入同比增長5.0%至549億元，主要由於消費貸款服務及理財服務收入增長和雲服務收入及商家技術服務費的增長。業績點評遊戲業務2025年第一季度，公司遊戲收入同比增長23.7%至595億元，占總營收的比重從去年同期的49.0%進一步提升至51.0%。其中，國際市場遊戲收入為人民幣166億元，同比增長22.1%，主要由於包括《PUBG MOBILE》及《荒野亂鬥》在內的遊戲表現強勁。本土市場遊戲收入同比增長24.3%至429億元，得益於去年低基數和長青遊戲《王者榮耀》等流水創下新高。同時，新遊戲《三角洲行動》DAU峰值突破1200萬，為行業近三年發佈的新遊戲中DAU最高的遊戲。根據管理層，國內和國際遊戲業務的收入增長仍有長期空間，AI技術助力提升遊戲體驗和使用者黏性，有望減少部分低基數效應。社交網路業務2025年第一季度，公司社交網路業務收入同比增長6.9%至326億元，主要由於廣告主對視頻號、小程式及微信搜一搜廣告庫存的強勁需求。騰訊視頻、騰訊音樂保持市場領先地位，付費會員數分別達到1.17億和1.23億。營銷服務業務2025年第一季度，公司營銷服務收入同比增長20.4%至319億元，主要得益於廣告主對視頻號、小程式及微信搜一搜廣告庫存的強勁需求。根據管理層，通過提升生成式AI能力，升級廣告技術平臺，例如改進圖像生成與視頻編輯功能以加速廣告製作，推出數字人解決方案以促進直播活動，以及加深對商品與用戶興趣的理解以提升推薦效果。目前，AI對廣告收入的提升部分通過廣告點擊率來量化。根據歷史資料，橫幅廣告點擊率約為0.1%，資訊流廣告約為1.0%。而借助AI優化，部分廣告庫存的點擊率已提升至3.0%。 EPS Page |2| PHILLIPCAPITALHONGKONGRESEARCH利用流量自然增長和時長提升帶動廣告收入增長，而無需依賴提升廣告投放量。公司可將新增廣告庫存的釋放保留到未來，進一步延長增長週期。通過控制廣告投放量來直接提升產品體驗，增強使用者粘性，形成體驗提升，到用戶留存增加，再到廣告價值提升的良性迴圈。金融科技及企業服務業務2025年第一季度，公司金融科技及企業服務業務收入達到549億元，同比增長5.0%。金融科技服務收入增長由於消費貸款服務及理財服務收入增長。企業服務收入的增長受益於雲服務收入及商家技術服務費增長。其中，騰訊雲音視頻解決方案連續七年按中國市場收入計排名第一。通過接入大語言模型能力，進一步提升音視頻解決方案內容生成、媒體處理和即時互動體驗。投資建議總體來說，我們看好AI助力公司的中長期成長，我們上調公司25-27年營業收入分別為7379/8099/8859億元，經調整淨利潤分別為2950/3153/3467億元，對應EPS為28/30/33元，當前股價對應PE為17/16/14x；根據SOTP估值法，基於對子公司和投資企業最新市值或估值和10%的折讓價值，我們預計2025年騰訊合計目標市值5.1萬億元，對應目標價602港元，更新評級為“增持”。%持有PE/PS2025E x分部估值, RMB mn核心業務4,552,755遊戲100%PE18x1,949,262社交網路100%PE18x513,754營銷服務100%PE18x918,763金融科技及企業服務100%PS5x1,170,976投資950,000控股折價10%4,952,479淨現金143,446總估值5,095,925風險因素1）遊戲監管趨嚴；2）宏觀經濟環境疲軟；3）來自現有及新興社交平臺的潛在競爭威脅。 Page |3| PHILLIPCAPITALHONGKONGRESEARCH財務資料 Page |4| PHILLIPCAPITALHONGKONGRESEARCH(現價截至6月6日)匯率：港元/人民幣=0.92 Page |5| PHILLIPCAPITALHONGKONGRESEARCHPHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMSWe do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands.We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) astock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculativeundertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendationThis publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd (“Phillip Securities”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms andThis publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct orconsequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication.The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason tobelieve are unreliable and any analysis,forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of beliefonly. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate,complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall nothave any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event willPhillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research madeavailable, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any timeThis material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of anyparticular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from afinancial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person,before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independentverification and exercise of judgment. Thefact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any productdescribed in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient