深度报告：从产品、渠道及服务再看PHM龙头成长潜力

2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E4985847579541,181-9.0%17.2%29.8%25.9%23.8%49107170226297-57.4%118.7%59.0%32.7%31.3%63108147194254-46.0%71.5%36.5%32.2%31.0%0.721.231.682.222.9160.8%63.6%63.0%62.9%62.8%12.6%18.4%19.4%20.4%21.5%8.0%11.6%13.1%15.0%16.8%70.341.030.022.717.35.54.23.73.22.7 陈超浦俊懿宋鑫宇 021-63325888*3144chenchao3@orientsec.com.cn执业证书编号：S0860521050002021-63325888*6106pujunyi@orientsec.com.cn执业证书编号：S0860514050004songxinyu@orientsec.com.cn执业证书编号：S0860524090002 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。目录一、PHM行业具备长、宽、厚三大特征........................................................41.1行业之“长”：渗透率低潜力无限，市场广阔开拓可期....................................................41.2行业之“宽”：场景多元而丰，技术融合为用.................................................................61.3行业之“厚”：技术沉淀日深，数据积累渐厚.................................................................7二、从行业属性看公司三大竞争优势..............................................................82.1优势一：平台化架构叠加软硬件自研塑造公司产品优势...............................................82.2优势二：故障案例数领先，积累行业大量Know-How................................................102.3优势三：头部标杆客户众多，奠定行业深耕基础........................................................10三、从产品、渠道和服务三要素再看公司成长性..........................................113.1产品端：品类拓展、技术升级，价值量不断提升........................................................123.2渠道端：海外市场逐步发力，渠道改革红利显现........................................................133.3服务端：看护设备数与日俱增，“订阅服务”后期发力..................................................15盈利预测与投资建议....................................................................................16盈利预测..........................................................................................................................16投资建议..........................................................................................................................17风险提示......................................................................................................17 2 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。图表目录图1：运维服务的发展历程...........................................................................................................4图2：当前行业运维服务存在诸多痛点.........................................................................................5图3：PHM的优点........................................................................................................................5图4：2020年中国企业设备数字化水平.......................................................................................5图5：全球预测性维护市场规模（单位：亿美元）.......................................................................5图6：中国预测性维护市场规模（单位：亿美元）.......................................................................5图7：设备运维保护对象..............................................................................................................6图8：PHM应用行业广泛.............................................................................................................6图9：PHM的工作原理...............................................................................................................7图10：传感器种类的多样性.........................................................................................................7图11：部件损坏的表征变化过程..................................................................................................7图12：PHM系统的复杂度更高但降本效果更明显.......................................................................8图13：公司状态监测与故障诊断系统架构图................................................................................8图14：公司灵芝SuperCare设备智能运维平台架构....................................................................8图15：公司状态监测与故障诊断系统架构图................................................................................9图16：公司传感器自制率............................................................................................................9图17：行业龙头毛利率对比.........................................................................................................9图18：2021-2024年公司故障案例的积累数量..........................................................................10图19：机器学习框架示意图.......................................................................................................10图20：2018-2024公司营业收入按行业分布情况（单位：百万元）..........................................11图21：各行业公司标杆客户.......................................................................................................11图22：2021-2024公司单季度营业收入同比增速.......................................................................12图23：公司风电机组监测设备应用............................................................................................12图24：公司场景智能应用解决方案............................................................................................12图25：公司PHMGPT大模型....................................................................................................13图26：公司有线系统平均单价及增速.........................................................................................13图27：公司无线系统平均单价及增速.........................................................................................13图28：公司合作伙伴战略架构....