工业 航空航天与国防及航空业：首选

EQUITYRESEARCH June2025 Industrials|Aerospace&DefenseandAirlineSectors TopPicks •CommercialOE– •BA:MAXproductionanddeliveriesareakeycatalystasinvestorsbridgetopositiveFCFin2026.WeestimateMAXclimbstoa27/mobuildand30/modeliveryrateinQ2:25exitingtheyearat38/mo,slightlybehindBA’sschedule. •HWM:85%ofsalesfrom1st/2ndmarketsharepositionw/30%+incrementalsthroughrecovery,sharegains,andnetpricingsupportingmarginexpansionto30%+,upfromourpreviousthinkingofmid-20%. •CommercialAftermarket– •GE:PremiumAerospacefranchisewith~70%aftermarketmixand$1BB+EBITupsidein2028targetsgivenconservativeCFM56shopvisitschedule,rampingLEAPAMvolumes/profits. •FTAI:AMpowerproviderofferingsignificantcost×avingsthroughgreen-timeoptimization,w/AviationEBITDAonpacefor$1.4BBby2026(up40%sincemid-2024)andSCIupside. •WWD:UnlockingvolumesacrossAerospaceandIndustrialisenablingstrongincrementals,witharobustComm'lAMinflectionexpectedasLEAP/GTFshopvisitvolumesramp,whereWWDholds5Xservicescontentthanpriorgenengines. •Defense–LHX:DoDradiomodernization,demandforairborneISR,higherbudgets,andelectronicwarfare ordersleadtoMSDorganicgrowthw/opleveragefromincrementalvolumesandcaptureofsynergies •ITServices–CACI:PeerleadingorganicgrowththatisexpectedtocontinueinthefaceofDOGEgivenfavorableexposuretonewadminpriorities(software-enablednetworkinfrastructure&ITsystemmodernization)&opptyformarginexpansiononfavorableTechnologymix. PrimeContractorsDiversifiedManufacturersMajorComponentSuppliersGovernmentITServicesSMIDA&DRankCompanyRatingRankCompanyRatingRankCompanyRatingRankCompanyRatingRankCompanyRating Rank AirlinesCompanyRating 1 LHX Buy 1 BA Buy 1 HWM Buy 1 CACI Buy 1 AVAV Buy 1 UAL Buy 2 GD Hold 2 GE Buy 2 FTAI Buy 2 PSN Hold 2 CDRE Buy 2 DAL Hold 3 NOC Hold 3 TDY Buy 3 WWD Buy 3 LDOS Hold 3 RDW Buy 3 ACCN Hold 4 LMT Hold 4 TXT Buy 4 LOAR Buy 4 BAH Hold 4 SPCE Buy 4 LUV Hold 5 RTX Hold 5 HEI Buy 5 SAIC Hold 5 EVEX Buy 5 AAL Hold 6 HON Hold 6 SARO Buy 7 TDG Buy 8 ESLT Hold 9 HXL Hold 10 MRCY Hold 11 KTOS Hold 12 TGI Hold SheilaKahyaoglu,EquityAnalyst,(212)336-7216,sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.com SheilaKahyaogluEquityAnalyst212.336.7216 sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.com GregKonradEquityAnalyst212.284.2391 gkonrad@jefferies.com EllenPageEquityAssociate212.323.3381 epage@jefferies.com KyleWenclawiakEquityAssociate212.323.7671 kwenclawiak@jefferies.com ConorWaltersEquityAssociate212.323.3395 cwalters@jefferies.com EricaReynoldsEquityAssociate212.708.2737 ereynolds1@jefferies.com EeganMcDermottEquityAssociate212.323.3323 0 emcdermott1@jefferies.com Coverage:Aerospace,Airlines,Defense,ITServices,Space AirCanada AmericanAirlines AeroVironment BoeingBoozAllenHamilton CACI CAE Cadre DeltaAirLines ElbitSystemsEve FTAI GeneralDynamics GeneralElectric Heico HexcelHoneywellHowmetKratosL3HarrisLeidos LOAR LockheedMartin NorthropGrumman ParsonsRTXRedwireSouthwestAirlines StandardAero Teledyne TextronTransDigmTriumphUnitedAirlines VSE VirginGalacticWoodward 1 SheilaKahyaoglu,EquityAnalyst,(212)336-7216,sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.com 1 JEFEstimates RevenueEPSEBITDA FCFCapitalization%Diluted CompanyFYEFY1FY2FY3FY1FY2FY3FY1FY2FY3FY1FY2FY3S/OMktCapEV BA12/31$84,814$100,833$114,596($1.40)$4.60$7.50$4,098$9,499$12,042($3,935)$6,816$8,947753$159,706$189,784 CAE12/313,4992,6303,2201.050.360.80899571744351347342321$8,38110 CommercialAerospace FTAI12/312,3272,8523,5094.856.759.001,1661,3811,7166328871,191103$12,670 GE12/3139,20844,46644,4665.606.657.659,26210,54311,6166,6817,7268,2731,078$270,4 HEI10/314,3644,5834,7884.454.855.351,1341,1921,248730834918141$ HON12/3140,53241,91743,50710.3511.5512.5010,36711,12411,7845,4585,9116,145652 HWM12/318,0378,8019,4253.424.304.952,2652,6942,9881,1561,6902,028 HXL12/311,9022,0192,2111.952.503.05365419468203187264 LOAR12/314875295640.740.951.2018420522783120153 TDG9/308,8509,56010,15836.9044.4051.005,1005,4875,903000 TGI3/311,3381,4671,5660.631.101.451872342665896 SARO12/315,9026,6597,5880.901.291.787829191,1033124 WWD9/303,4373,7454,0486.207.358.45645743831373 AVAV4/30$789$918$1,031$3.10$3.83$4.43$140$165$190 ESLT12/317,7738,5439,00010.8513.6514.958521,0141,102 KTOS12/311,2731,4551,6250.450.650.75115147 Defense LHX12/3121,54222,69023,77410.5011.8013.104,0594,387 LMT12/3174,28377,36380,42827.1529.1031.1010,589 MRCY6/308819431,0280.350.951.35103 NOC12/3142,07943,97745,70725.1027.2529.30 RTX12/3183,97588,15792,3796.106.807.50 TDY12/316,0186,2996,51621.3023.2024.5 ITServices BAH3/31$12,062$12,804$13,979$6.35$6. CACI6/308,6299,2569,65124.60 LDOS12/3117,07717,71418,40210 PSN12/317,0867,0867,086 SAIC1/317,4797,6097,838 BizJets GD12/31$50,195$52,109 TXT12/3114,42315,4 AAL12/31$54 Airlines AC-CA12/31 DAL12/31 LUV12 SMID/Space UALEVE Note:SPXistheS&P500index. Source:CompanydataandJefferiesestimates Sub-Sector Company Rating PriceTarget Price Downside/Upside Perf.YTD FY1 P/E FY2 FY3 FY1 EV/EBITDA FY2 FY3 FY1 EV/Sales FY2 FY3 %FY2FCF Yield CommercialAerospace BA Buy $250 $211.98 18% -18.7% -151.2x 46.1x 28.3x 46.3x 20.0x 15.8x 2.2x 1.9x 1.7x NM CAE Hold