锌月报：强供弱需主导 锌价承压震荡
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投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号李婷从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509黄蕾从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692高慧从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785王工建从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301赵凯熙从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cnhuang.lei@jyqh.com.cngao.h@jyqh.com.cnwang.gj@jyqh.com.cnzhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明核心观点及策略要点要点要点的预期随之升温。闭带来的影响。韧性。锌价维持偏弱震荡。 2/22目录一、锌市场行情回顾.........................................................4二、宏观面.................................................................42.1美国方面...................................................................................................................................42.2欧元区方面...............................................................................................................................52.3国内方面..................................................................................................................................5三、锌基本面分析...........................................................73.1锌矿供应情况...........................................................................................................................73.1.1全球锌精矿供应由紧转松...................................................................................................73.1.2锌精矿加工费加速回升，锌矿进口量超预期.................................................................93.2精炼锌供应情况.....................................................................................................................103.2.1海外炼厂减扩产并存，供应扰动风险仍存.....................................................................103.2.2 1 6月精炼锌供应强劲恢复，锌锭进口窗口再关闭......................................................113.3精炼锌需求情况.....................................................................................................................133.3.1欧美终端消费短暂回暖，中长期消费前景不明朗..........................................................133.3.2初端企业开工存回落预期，镀锌出口延续强劲...........................................................153.3.3政策加码支持，终端消费分化.........................................................................................153.4海外库存延续高位回落，国内库存先增后减................................19四、总结与后市展望........................................................20 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 3/22图表目录图表1沪锌主连及LME三月期锌走势.................................................................................4图表2美国通胀情况................................................................................................................6图表3美国利率水平................................................................................................................6图表4美国就业市场.................................................................................................................6图表5欧美PMI数据...............................................................................................................6图表6欧元区通胀情况............................................................................................................7图表7欧元区利率水平............................................................................................................7图表8国内PMI数据................................................................................................................7图表9国内重要经济指标........................................................................................................7图表10 2025年海外锌矿产量增减情况（万吨）..................................................................8图表11全球锌矿月度产量情况..............................................................................................9图表12国内锌矿月度产量情况..............................................................................................9图表13 2025年国内锌矿新增情况（万吨）..........................................................................9图表14内外加工费延续回升................................................................................................10图表15锌矿进口盈亏............................................................................................................10图表16锌矿进口情况............................................................................................................10图表17冶炼厂原料库存天数................................................................................................10图表18全球精炼锌月度产量情况........................................................................................11图表19 2024-2025年海外炼厂事件汇总（万吨）...............................................................11图表20国内精炼锌月度产量................................................................................................12图表21冶炼厂生产利润........................................................................................................12图表22精炼锌净进口情况....................................................................................................12图表23精炼锌进口盈亏情况................................................................................................12图表24 2024-2025年国内主要炼厂投建产情况（万吨）...................................................13图表25全球精炼锌月度需求情况........................................................................................14图表26美国新建住房销量.................................................
