班尼杰集团：cmd与流动性思考

F25E10.410.42 Jun 202511.50/7.731,432.596M23.416.17.306/2512001300140015001600 RatingMarket-PerformPrice TargetBNJ.NAAdjusted EPSF24ABNJ.NA (EUR)0.99OLD--Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Banijay Group: CMD & Liquidity thoughtsCMD showcased well the group’s strengthBanijay’s May CMD shed more light on itsbusiness model, which, due to its low liquidity, tends to fall under the radar of investors. Thegroup laid out a) new financial targets for 2028 (which were broadly in line with consensus)b) its business model and c) did deep dives into its three activities, with one on the recentlylaunched Live division being particularly helpful. Alongside the CMD the group highlightedits option to take control of The Independents, which could be financed via a primary equityraise of €300-400m (6-9% of current mrkt cap.), that could give the opportunity for newshareholders to get involved and solve a part of the liquidity issue of the company.A deal to solve the liquidity issueSince its listing in 2023 Banijay’s red herring has beenits liquidity (it has 13% free float of a decent market cap, but actual volumes have been verylimited). At the listing it was said that some anchor investors were willing to exit the stocksooner rather than later. Yet up to now no such opportunity presented itself. While theseinvestors took their participation in the co. prior to the listing, we believe their referenceprice for an exit was for long the €10/share i.e. SPAC valuation. However, two years on andnot much has changed (shares are trading at c.€10) which raises the question whethersuch investors could be willing to exit the company even at the current valuation levels if anopportunity presents itself. This could come via an acquisition paired with an equity raisegiving existing shareholders the possibility exit the group, we believe.Is ITV the one?The FT raised the idea of a Banijay/ITV merger (see our view here & here).Banijay has been vocal about its ambition for major content M&A and as ITV owns one of thebest content assets, a deal would make sense. However, the numbers behind such a dealseem complicated. ITV’s £3bn market cap and ND YE24 of £431m means it is impossible forBanijay to make a levered deal (its own leverage ratio is 3x) and an equity raise at the abovelevel seems incredibly ambitious. We’d expect them to buy IP libraries worth <€1bn.Investment ImplicationsReiterate Market-PerformWe make minimal changes to our estimates (i.e. we roll fwd ourmodel to 2028 to reflect the CMD guidance and adjust our LTIP estimates on the back of thegroup’s new guidance). We reiterate our MP rating. KPIs are pointing in the right direction,but the liquidity remains an unresolved issue for now. Our TP rises by €1.2 as we reflect thegroup’s new cash out LTIP guidance.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 03 Jun 2025 05:00 UTC Completion Date: 02 Jun 2025 18:52 UTC F26E9.09.010.4012.6021%Dec0.3%4,4027,18812M14.011.22.8 12.60 EUR(11.40OLD)F26E1.161.20FinancialsReported EPSEBITDA (M)Revenues (M) F25E1.001.05F24AF25EF26E0.991.001.16900.20963.571,0554,8025,1865,644 DETAILSLast month Banijay group held a CMD as it aimed to shed more light on its business that tends to fall under the radar of investorsexplained by the low liquidity of the group (Exhibit 1). The group laid out a) new financial targets for 2028 b) its business modeland c) did deep dives into its three activities, with the deep-dive on the recent launch of Live being particularly helpful.Banijay group is today a global entertainment group, which in YE24 delivered €4.8bn revenues up from €0.2bn in 2009as it has grown organically and inorganically. Today the group runs three activities: a) Online Sports Betting and Gaming b)Content Production and Distribution and c) Live Experiences and employs >30k people across 33 countries. In FY24 the groupdelivered €900m adj EBITDA. The group anticipates to keep on growing via a mix of organic and inorganic growth (Exhibit 2 &Exhibit 3).EXHIBIT 1:Banijay timeline - boosted among others by the acquisition of 45+ bolt-on acquisitions paid on avg 7xEV/EBITDASource: company reports, Bernstein analysisNEW TARGETS POINT TO A POTENTIAL EQUITY RAISE IN 2026As part of the CMD the group has announced new financial targets (see below). We reflect these guidances in our estimates aswe roll our model to 2028.•Revenue:~€7.0bn in 2028 (Bernstein €6.7bn)•Adjusted EBITDA:>€1.2bn in 2028 (Bernstein €1.28bn)•Organic revenue CAGR 2025-2028:Mid-to-high single digit for Content Production, Distribution & Live Experiences; Low-to-mid teens for Online Sports Betting & Gaming•Organic Adjusted EBITDA CAGR 2025-2028: High-single digit to low-double digit growth•Adjusted FCF conversion: >80% Adjusted FCF conversion rate (Bernstein 84% conversion)•Adjusted Operating FCF conversion: ~65% Adjuste