格雷斯海姆：三个季度内第二次盈利预警后评级下调

47.50 EUR(84.50OLD)F26E4.626.21FinancialsRevenues (M)EBITDA (M) F24AF25E4.694.31--5.28F24AF25EF26ECAGR2,0362,4082,540--396.00469.58484.27--Valuation MetricsF24AF25EAdjusted P/E (x)10.411.3Close Date2 Jun 2025GXI.GY Close Price (EUR)Price Target (EUR)Upside/(Downside)52-Week Range109.70/47.00EDMFYEDiv YieldMarket Cap (EUR) (M)EV (EUR) (M)PerformanceYTD1M6MAbsolute (%)(31.2)(19.4)(36.4)EDM (%)18.92.616.1Relative (%)(50.1)(21.9)(52.6)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Price Performance, 1YR€120€110€100€90€80€70€60€5006/2409/2412/2403/2506/2512001300140015001600GXI.GYEDMwww.bernsteinresearch.com Investment ImplicationsCutting our estimates significantly.We lower our FY25 margin estimate for the glassdivision (PPG) to 18% from 20.3%, resulting in group adj. EBITDA margin of 20.3% vs 22.2%and an 18% cut in our adj. EPS to €4.31. We also cut our sales and EPS series for 2025-2029by 2% and 25% respectively. We downgrade our recommendation from Outperform toUnderperform and our PT from €84.5 to €47.5 (WACC increased from 10.3% to 10.8% onhigher beta).EUROPEAN HEALTHCARE, MEDTECH AND BIOTECH VALUATION COMPS TABLEEXHIBIT 1:Peer valuation, 2025-29eCompany data as of 02.06.202525ESchott Pharma AG28.0x23.3xStevanato Group41.8x34.0xAptar27.2x25.0xAverage32.3x27.4xGerresheimer14.7x13.7xGerresheimer Vs peers-55%Company data as of 02.06.202525ESchott Pharma AG4.2xStevanato Group5.2xAptar3.1xAverage4.2xGerresheimer1.2xGerresheimer Vs peers-71%Company data as of 02.06.2025Bernstein ratingBernsteinin bn, local currencyanalystSchott Pharma AGNot coveredStevanato GroupNot coveredAptarNot coveredAverageGerresheimerOutperformDelphine Le LouetAll non-covered companies (Schott Pharma AG, Stevanato Group and Aptar) use Bloomberg consensus estimatesSource: Company reports, Bloomberg (Stevenato, Schott and Aptar), Bernstein analysis and estimates (Gerresheimer)EUROPEAN HEALTHCARE, MEDTECH AND BIOTECH DETAILSEXHIBIT 2:Gerresheimer stock price and main events, January 2024 - June 20254050607080901001101201-Jan-24Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysisPEER VALUATIONEXHIBIT 3:Comparative landscape: EV/Sales 2025E vsSales CAGR 2024-29EAptar3.1x1x2x3x4x5x6x6.0%6.5%EV/Sales ratio 2025ESource: Company reports, Bloomberg (Stevenato, Schott and Aptar), Bernsteinanalysis and estimates (Gerresheimer)EXHIBIT 5:Comparative landscape: P/E 2025E vs EPSCAGR 2024-29EAptar27.2x10x15x20x25x30x35x40x45x6%P/E ratio 2025ESource: Company reports, Bloomberg (Stevenato, Schott and Aptar), Bernsteinanalysis and estimates (Gerresheimer)EUROPEAN HEALTHCARE, MEDTECH AND BIOTECH 7.0%EV/Sales 2025E Vs Sales CAGR 2024-29E comparative landscapeGerresheimer14.7x8%10%P/E 2025E Vs EPS CAGR 2024-29E comparative landscape Gerresheimer1.2xSchott Pharma4.2xStevanato Group5.2x7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%Sales CAGR 2024-29ESchott Pharma28.0xStevanato Group41.8x12%14%16%18%20%EPS CAGR 2024-29E EXHIBIT 4:Comparative landscape: EV/ EBITDA 2025E VsEBITDA marginGerresheimer6.0xSchott Pharma AG15.8xStevanato Group20.9xAptar13.8x5x7x9x11x13x15x17x19x21x20%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%EV/EBITDA ratio 2025EEBITDA margin 2025EEV/ EBITDA 2025E Vs EBITDA margin comparative landscapeSource: company reports, Bloomberg (Stevenato, Schott and Aptar), Bernsteinanalysis and estimates (Gerresheimer)4 22% OLD VS NEWEXHIBIT 6:Bernstein new vs old estimates, 2024-2029eGroup revenuesAdj. EBITDAAdj. EBITDA margin (%)Reported EBITReported EBIT margin (%)Adj. Net incomeUnderling EPS (€)Plastics and Devices SalesPlastics and Devices adj. EBITDAPlastics and Devices adj. EBITDA marginPrimary Packaging Glass SalesPrimary Packaging Glass adj. EBITDAPrimary Packaging Glass adj. EBITDA marginNewSource: Company reports, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis and estimatesEUROPEAN HEALTHCARE, MEDTECH AND BIOTECH P/E VALUATIONEXHIBIT 7:GXI trades at a P/E of 9.5x, a 42.4% discountvs its 5y average of 16.5x...Average 10y:16.3x7x9x11x13x15x17x19x21x23xJun-15Jun-16Jun-17Jun-18GXI 12 mth FWD P/ESource: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysisLBO MODELAs seen in the model below, using a 3.9% interest rate and an exit multiple of 8.5x, reflecting an approx. 15% discount to its directpeers, Exhibit 1, suggests to us that there should be no immediate interest from any PE to acquire the company at current price asthe IRR is only19.8% (Exhibit 10). With a further share price decline of 15% for example, IRR would stand at 25.3%, which couldbe a better entry point for a LBO player. That said, an equity-based takeover could be a possibility at this level.EXHIBIT 9:A 15% discount to current price could make a LBO feasibleIn €mRevenuesAdj. EBITDAEBITLBO debt interest expensesEBTTax expensesTax rateNet incomeD&ACapexNet working capital changeFCFAssumptionsCurrent market cap, (in €m)Premium paidEquity acquisition price, (in €m)2025 net debt, (in €m)Price paid, (in €m)Current EV/EBITDAEntry EV/EBITDAExit EV/EBITDAInterest rateInitial leverage ratioInitial LBO debt, (in €m)Sponsor Equity, (in €m)Total, (in €m)Source: Company reports, Bern