IDP教育集团交易更新-秋季招生

FY25 Outlook(provided in Jun 25)1Q CY25 28% pcp;full year expected to continue todeterioraten/a28-30% declinen/a18-20% declinedeclinedeclineAdj. Overhead:2H25 ~5% below 2H FY24n/a$115-125 Mid-pointofGuidanceConsensusJEFevs.Consensusvs.JEFen/an/an/an/an/a-29%-19%-18%-10%-11%-19%-15%-20%-4%1%n/adeclinedeclinen/an/a-5%-6%-1%1%-4%120168144-28%-17% Wei Sim * | Equity Analyst+61 477773438 | wei.sim@jefferies.comJennifer Xu * | Equity Associate+61 293642894 | jennifer.xu@jefferies.comJohn Campbell * | Equity Analyst+61 439052387 | jcampbell1@jefferies.comTom Chapman * | Equity Analyst+61 438499671 | tom.chapman@jefferies.com Company DescriptionIDP EducationIDP Education is a global provider of international student placement services and high-stakes English language testing services. In addition, thecompany owns and operates English language schools and organises educational events and conferences globally. The key business segments,English Language testing and Student Placements, operate in very close verticals and are mutually beneficial. To a certain degree, these businessdivisions are driven by the growth in international education and the central role of English as a prominent global language.Company Valuation/RisksIDP EducationValuation methodology is a DCF assuming 9.3% WACC, 7.1% FY24-30e revenue CAGR and 22% FY30e terminal EBITDA margin. Our PT implies24x FY27e PER.Upside risks include recovery in Canada volumes, further acceptance of one skill retake (OSR) in key markets, an increase in PTE score equivalencyrelative to IELTS, a decoupling of IELTS and SP volume correlation vs. historical experience; and M&A.Analyst Certification:I, Wei Sim, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Jennifer Xu, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, John Campbell, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Tom Chapman, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Wei Sim is employed by Jefferies (Australia) Pty Ltd, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified asa research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Jennifer Xu is employed by Jefferies (Australia) Pty Ltd, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:John Campbell is employed by Jefferies (Australia) Pty Ltd, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Tom Chapman is employed by Jefferies (Australia) Pty Ltd, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial