瑞士宝盛银行（BAER）：初步观点：现实的战略更新

May 21, 2025May 8, 2025 Tom Mills * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8478 | tom.mills@jefferies.comJulian Roberts * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 5316 | jroberts1@jefferies.comFangfei Li, ACA * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8704 | fli@jefferies.comLaura Gris Trillo, CFA * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8988 | lgristrillo@jefferies.com Company DescriptionJulius BaerJulius Baer is a Switzerland-based private banking group. It has a pure wealth management business model, supporting customers in investing,financing and wealth planning. It has a premium-brand and presents in ~25 countries. Its revenue model comprises interest-driven income,recurring income and activity-driven income.Company Valuation/RisksJulius BaerOur primary valuation approach for BAER is a Gordon growth model. Our reference year is 2025E. We apply a terminal growth rate of 2% and acost of equity of 11% (in line w/ 10yr avg.). Key downside risks include: weaker market returns than expected; a deterioration in NNM, potentiallythrough the loss of key relationship managers; further gross margin deterioration; a failure to deliver on cost efficiencies; and litigation/regulatoryfines that limit BAER's ability to return capital to investors. Key upside risks include: stronger market returns than expected; an acceleration inNNM; an improvement in gross margin driven by rate, client or market-related factors; or incremental cost saving initiatives.Analyst Certification:I, Tom Mills, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Julian Roberts, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Fangfei Li, ACA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Laura Gris Trillo, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Tom Mills is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Julian Roberts is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Fangfei Li, ACA is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Laura Gris Trillo, CFA is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is notregistered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and thereforemay not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities heldby a research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update o