塔洛石油：初步观点 - TLW交易更新指向现金收支平衡现实

March 25, 2025March 25, 2025January 30, 2025 Mark Wilson, CEng * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8691 | mark.wilson@jefferies.comRuben Dewa, CFA * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8262 | rdewa@jefferies.comNiraj Bhosale * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4066 | nbhosale@jefferies.com Company DescriptionTullow OilTullow Oil is an independent E&P with a history founded on frontier exploration success in Africa. The company production comes from WestAfrica assets, principally offshore Ghana from its operator stakes in the Jubilee and TEN fields which it discovered in 2007 & 2009 respectively.CEO Rahul Dhir joined in July 2020 and has outlined a new strategic direction for the company focused on maximising recovery and cashflowfrom its Ghana production base.Company Valuation/RisksTullow OilPT 10p/sh, set equal to Core NAV of 13p, with our ave 2025/26 EV/EBITDA (unch) of -3p on multiple of 2.0x (prev 1.75x); ex-growth W. Africaproduction. Risks: Balance sheet maturities, RBL tightening, failure to maintain production growth levels in Ghana at the Jubilee field.Analyst Certification:I, Mark Wilson, CEng, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report.I, Ruben Dewa, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Niraj Bhosale, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Mark Wilson, CEng is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Ruben Dewa, CFA is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Niraj Bhosale is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate,but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports arepublished at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedExplanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or morewithin a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average securityprice consistently b