宝盛银行（BAER）2025年4月1.3亿瑞士法郎增量贷款损失拨备；客户活动使损益表线下项目受益

4M254672.5%15.2% Cons.4M244M254714700.7%3.0%"Close to 89 bps""just over 69%"69.6%2715.3%Actual 84 Tom Mills * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8478 | tom.mills@jefferies.comFangfei Li, ACA * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8704 | fli@jefferies.comLaura Gris Trillo, CFA * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8988 | lgristrillo@jefferies.com Company DescriptionJulius BaerJulius Baer is a Switzerland-based private banking group. It has a pure wealth management business model, supporting customers in investing,financing and wealth planning. It has a premium-brand and presents in ~25 countries. Its revenue model comprises interest-driven income,recurring income and activity-driven income.Company Valuation/RisksJulius BaerOur primary valuation approach for BAER is a Gordon growth model. Our reference year is 2025E. We apply a terminal growth rate of 2% and acost of equity of 11% (in line w/ 10yr avg.). Key downside risks include: weaker market returns than expected; a deterioration in NNM, potentiallythrough the loss of key relationship managers; further gross margin deterioration; a failure to deliver on cost efficiencies; and litigation/regulatoryfines that limit BAER's ability to return capital to investors. Key upside risks include: stronger market returns than expected; an acceleration inNNM; an improvement in gross margin driven by rate, client or market-related factors; or incremental cost saving initiatives.UBS Group AGWe value UBS via two methodologies (our price target is the average of both methods). First, we perform an SOTP-based valuation, using 2026forecasts and applying specific CoE and growth rates for each division to reflect the different growth and profitability outlooks across divisions.We then add the capital surplus (or remove the capital deficit) & the cumulative dividends and discount back to 12 months forward. Second,we create a dividend discount model (DDM) based on 2023-26 forecasts and add back the capital surplus (or remove the capital deficit) andlitigation and Russian risks. We use the same COE (12.8%) and G (1.7%) in both methods.Main upside risks: stronger macro environment than expected, stronger capital markets than expected, stronger flows in Wealth Managementthan expected, stronger increase in loan book & NIM than expected, faster & more successful integration & restructuring of Credit Suisse thanexpected.Main downside risks: weaker macro environment than expected, weaker capital markets than expected, weaker flows in Wealth Managementthan expected and more generally contagion risk from CS weaknesses & confidence crisis, decline in loan book & NIM pressure (higher fundingcosts post CS deal), higher losses than expected from the CS integration & restructuring (revenue dis-synergies, restructuring costs, litigationcosts, fair value adjustments, NCU unwinding in particular).Analyst Certification:I, Tom Mills, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Fangfei Li, ACA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Laura Gris Trillo, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Tom Mills is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Fangfei Li, ACA is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Laura Gris Trillo, CFA is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is