布朗-福尔曼2025财年第四季度收益准备

Restricted - External BFb/BF/BOVERWEIGHTU.S. CHPC & BeveragesNEUTRALPrice TargetUSD 38.00Price (03-Jun-25)USD 33.21Potential Upside/Downside+14.4%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchU.S. CHPC & BeveragesLauren R. Lieberman+1 212 526 3112lauren.lieberman@barclays.comBCI, US influencing the ways in which consumers are interacting with the spirits category as of late. In arelated vein, BFB will be issuing FY26 guidance, which we suspect could remain a somewhatchallenging exercise given the degree of uncertainty that still exists around the global trade warand related knock-oneffectsto inflation and consumer demand.For our part, we look for +3.4% OSG next year that is fairly balanced between volumes (+1.9%)and price/mix (+1.5%). Importantly, our FY26 forecasts don't require a material bounce back inthe US (BARCe US OSG +2.2% vs the ~MSD historical run-rate), but we also look to tomorrow formore color on any potential short-term disruption from transitioning to 7 new distributorpartners this summer. We model +1.8% organic operating profit growth in FY26, which includesa gradual ramp of savings beginning in F2Q26 tied to the restructuring. As a reminder, BFBanticipates $70-$80mm of annualized savings, although it remains to be seen how much will bereinvested and the timeline for hitting that run-rate. We’ve assumed ~60% is reinvested, withthe gradual ramp of the other 40% amounting to $13mm of savings flowing through opex inFY26. From a bottom line perspective, we look for EPS -1.8% YoY to $1.82 driven by lapping 1xgains from FY25. Recall in FY25 BFB booked $103mm in 1x gains (driven by the sale of its NAPAstake), which are partiallyoffsetby restructuring costs ($33mm in F3Q and TBD on how muchwas spent in F4Q). Excluding these 1x items, we estimate underlying EPS is up more in the ~MSDballpark.We recognize limited channel coverage makes readily available industry data imperfect at best,but we still typically try to leverage it as a directional indicator if nothing else. That said, thedata presented an especially mixed bag for F4Q (period ending April 2025), with US Nielsenpointing to a sequential improvement in BFB volume (and sales) growth, while NABCA suggestsvolumes decelerated. On the flip side, total distilled spirits volume growth appears steady QoQin US Nielsen (but sales growth slightly decelerating), while NABCA indicates an improvementQoQ for the category. But in both instances, BFB volume declines were steeper compared tototal spirits' performance. More specifically, the two data sets present a range of -2.7% to -4.5%for BFB volumes in F4Q and -0.2% to +2.1% for TDS over the same time period, reflecting BFBvolume share compression of ~15 to 25 bps in US Nielsen and NABCA, respectively. EuropeanNielsen suggests sequential improvement for both total spirits and BFB volumes, with the latternotably returning to outright growth (+1.1%). BFB's sales declines also look to have narrowedQoQ (to -0.8%), while total category sales decelerated sequentially (to -3.4%).In light of some still muted growth rates evident in available data, coupled with theconsiderable consumer confidence disruption over April tied to the trade war, we tempered ourF4Q consolidated OSG by -100 bps to +5% last week, which assumes volumes +4.5% andprice/mix +0.5%. Of note, we assume a distributor tailwind of ~3% in F4Q that is comparable towhat the business experienced in F3Q as the business is lapping easier comps from F2H24.Inclusive of a FX drag of -2.5% and -2% structural headwind tied to exiting the TSA, we look fornet sales growth of +0.5%.Moving down the P&L, recall that BFB expects gross margins to land similar to the YTD averageof 59.4%, implying ~50 bps of margin expansion in F4Q to bridge to the ~100 bps of margincompression of the full year. We assume price/mix and the structural tailwind from the end ofBFB's TSA agreements more thanoffsetcontinued input cost and FX pressures. Advertising at14.2% of sales in F4Q (brings full year growth in the ballpark of depletions-based OSG) andSG&A at 21.7% of sales (down ~230 bps YoY as the company laps a sizeable charitablecontribution from the prior year) bring our quarterly operating margin to 23.4%. All in, we lookfor F4Q EPS of $0.33, which is down over 40% YoY as the business laps the $175mm 1x gain fromF4Q24 tied to the Sonoma-Cutrer divestiture.2 What Matters Most to Us• FY26 guidance (including additional detail on how to think about timing & degree of flow-through on the savings tied to BFB's strategic initiatives)• Latest perspective on US consumer demand• Strategic and near-term financial impacts of the recently announced US route-to-marketchangesGuidance Recap---- FY25 ----• Organic net sales: +2-4%• Gross margin: similar to YTD average (~59.4%)• Organic operating income: +2-4%• Capex: $180-$190mm• Tax rate: ~20-22%---- Long-Term Targets ----• Double operating profit by FY32 (from FY22)• Supported by doubling the American whiskey business and tripling the tequila business(a