Chewy公司（CHWY）：还有增长空间还是准备暂停？2025财年第一季度预览

More Room to Run or Ready for aPause? F1Q25 Preview We see an F1Q rev/EBITDA beat and F2Q guided ahead, withFY25 rev guide unchanged on macro uncertainty. GMprogression may be noisy lapping 1x items last year, withfocus on whether core GM ex. ads expands y/y. Stock hasmeaningfully re-rated, but we still see upside. CFO transitionunclear. CHWYOVERWEIGHTUnchanged U.S. InternetPOSITIVEUnchanged Price TargetUSD 50.00raised 14% from USD 44.00 Price (23-May-25)USD 43.92Potential Upside/Downside+13.8%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research The Key Takeaway:CHWY has re-rated meaningfully since the last print (Figure 2), and whilesome of this was warranted given what we view as relatively defensive characteristics amidtrade uncertainty in April (less discretionary, lowtariffexposure), we're admittedly a bitsurprised to see it pushing to new multi-year highs as some of the"tarifftrade" has unwound.All that said, we remain constructive on the CHWY story. F1Q should see revenue growth stepdown on the impact from extra week last quarter, and the cadence of net customer adds wanesa tad vs. the outsized growth in F4Q (lapping a very easy compare, some extra week benefit), butnevertheless ahead of the trend prior to that. While topline trends matter, we think investorswill be equally focused on the GM progression in the quarter. Last quarter saw "core" marginsdown a bit when excluding the estimatedliftfrom the advertising ramp (70-80bps est.), even ashigher-margin categories grew faster than consumables. There was some weather-relatedimpact (20-30bps est.) that won't likely repeat this quarter, but optically the margin progressionwill again look a bitsofteras CHWY laps 70bps of one-time benefits in F1Q24, the bulk of whichwas outsized vendor rebates (not necessarily one-time, but perhaps a bit lumpy). GM is reallythe key driver of the EBITDA margin expansion story here, and the two primary levers (categorymixshiftand advertising) need to be moving in the right direction consistently, particularly aspet household formations (and by extension, hardgoods) recover. Our pricing tracker suggestssome positive pricing actions in recent months, although underlying mix and May promoseasonality may be adding some noise here. Overall, for F1Q, we see a modest revenue andEBITDA beat and F2Q guided ahead, which should be well received, but any sort of slowdown inmargin progression could keep a lid on shares near term. On the CFO departure, we understandthe rationale as Mr. Reeder moves to an external CEO role; this may become a new overhang,however, pending visibility on a replacement. With the stock hitting multi-year highs, we wouldnot be surprised to see BC Partners resume selling down its stake post results. We raise our PTto $50 (from $44) based on 22x our FY26E EBITDA. Price PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeUSD 44.62-16.45 Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting U.S. InternetTrevor Young, CFA+1 212 526 3098trevor.young@barclays.comBCI, US Key Metrics for F1Q25:We're ahead of consensus for F1Q active customers (+250k q/q to~20.8m) as we think CHWY is again lapping an easier in-period compare in 1Q. This is partiallyoffsetby our expectation for slightlysofterNSPAC growth (+3% y/y to $582) as the mix of new/ Ross Sandler+1 415 263 4470ross.sandler@barclays.comBCI, US Alex Hughes+1 212 526 3069alexander.hughes@barclays.comBCI, US reactivated customers slows NSPAC growth a tad. Our overall net sales ($3,094m, +7.5% y/y) isabout ~50bps (~$16m) above consensus. We're trimming our F1Q GM/EBITDA on our view thatthe outized F1Q24 vendor rebate, which was previously called out by the company, may notrepeat and/or be as meaningful this year. That said, we're still a bit ahead of consensus on GMas we think 20-30bps (est.) of headwind last quarter from weather-related fulfillment challengeswon't persist again. We see GM +50bps y/y to 30.2%, or +120bps y/y pro forma to exclude the 1xitems in the year prior period. Of note, we think this reflects about a 70bpliftfrom the continuedramp of advertising, plus some improvement in "core" GM – a key area of focus among investorswe spoke with following the F4Q print. We expect some modest leverage in SG&A, partiallyoffsetby some de-leverage in marketing, but overall we see adjusted EBITDA ($192m, 6.2%margin) expanding y/y; we're about 1% ahead of consensus. For F2Q, we expect revenue guideof $3,040-3,070m (6.3-7.4% growth y/y), which would be ahead of current consensus at the low-end. While this may sound aggressive, we think current consensus is too conservative on thepath of growth from here, most notably on the customer side. We expect full year revenue andEBITDA margin guide to remain unchanged on embedded conservatism around macro and thecadence of ramp in advertising. Recall that last year CHWY also waited to update FY revenueguide until later in the year, while EBITDA guide was raised each quarter throughout the year. Upside/Downside scenarios Barclays vs. Consens