私人信贷关键要点

U.S. Business & Professional ServicesNEUTRALU.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & ExchangesPOSITIVEU.S. Brokers, Asset Managers &ExchangesBenjamin Budish, CFA+1 212 526 2418benjamin.budish@barclays.comBCI, USU.S. Business & Professional ServicesManav Patnaik+1 212 526 2983manav.patnaik@barclays.comBCI, US question asked by investors lately, as they see deployment opportunities beyond traditionalLBO financing.Scale matters.Messaging from the alts across our coverage has been that the biggest are onlygetting bigger (e.g., in 2024, ~60% of private markets wealth flows accumulated to the top 6managers), and panelists today noted that barriers to entry are only getting more fortified. Thisis in part due to the evolving nature of private credit: post-GFC, firms could enter the directlending industry with much greater ease, but panelists opined that today, lenders need multi-dimensional origination engines. In other words, it is not just access to capital that is important,but also - and moredifficultto access - is the access to deal flow.ABF: the next frontier.Similarly on message with what we have heard across our alternativeasset manager coverage, Moody's sees as much as $40T of assets that could be financed in theABF market. And, as with the private credit story told above (more of a direct lending story),here too private credit is stepping in as the amount of needed capital - particularly alongsidesimilar themes such as digital infrastructure - is requiring additional sources of financing.Panelists noted that where ABF facilities would typically be provided by banks, in recent yearsinsurance companies and private credit funds are increasingly stepping in. In addition to privatecredit funds and insurance companies, panelists see drivers of demand for the assets alsocoming from the wealth channel, whether through interval funds (many of which are still quitenascent for ABF in particular), or potentially the 401k market.KKR sees symbiotic benefits from Global Atlantic.We heard from Global Atlantic co-founderand Chari Allan Levin and Dan Pietrzak, KKR's Global Head of Private Credit, who described thecompany-wide benefits from KKR's 100% ownership of Global Atlantic. KKR sees its fullownership as a contributor to the company's understanding of the key needs and concerns ofinsurers, which has in turn helped improve third-party relationships. Of note, like Apollo, KKRhas a number of origination platforms, and we believe the company sees a similar opportunityto drive more capital markets fees from investment grade credit (note 2/3 to 3/4 of KKR capitalmarkets fees are typically fixed-income related, but heavily focused on sub-IG credit). Lastly,management opined that as demographic trends increasingly favor retirement services, theinsurance industry will need more access to capital, and the company thinks sidecars (e.g., likeKKR's Ivy series) will become more of an asset class of its own where institutions arecomfortable allocating.The data, analytics and ratings opportunity will become larger over time.MCO noted thatthey expect private credit AUM to double in 3 years to ~$1.7T, and Marc Pinto, MCO Head ofPrivate Credit, later said that could be very conservative. They also noted both liquidity andlack of transparency as key challenges for the market. Data and analytics are a key part ofbringing about better transparency, and then eventually better liquidity as a result. Note: MCOCEO Rob Fauber also highlighted its recently announced partnership with MSCI, whichcombines MCO's EDF-X credit risk models with MSCI's Burgiss private capital data.Re: MCO/SPGI Ratings, fund finance (i.e. NAV lending) is a key area for rated PC, andincreasingly some direct lending as well.Though generally smaller CRAs rate direct lendingdeals (i.e. KBRA, Egan-Jones, etc.), the Big 3 players are becoming more involved as deal sizesincrease. Outside of that, NAV lending has been the main focus, especially because somestructures are actually receiving IG ratings (LTV can be as little as 10-15%, so there would needto be significant NAV destruction before default risk becomes an issue). But a key issue with NAVlending for Ratings is that ultimate cash flows come from monetizations of portfolio companies,which can bedifficultto predict. Private equity holding periods have extended with the averagenow 4.6 years, and in some cases up to 6 years. In some instances, NAV loans are a bridge to the 2 ultimate monetization, so the Ratings analysts need to have clear understanding on exit plans,valuations, etc. (which is atypical vs. a conventional Ratings process).Note: See charts from Barclays Tuesday Credit Call: Under the HY Hood, Barclays US CreditStrategy, 06/03/25 detailing recent trends in private credit.4 June 2025Barclays | U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges / U.S. Business & Professional Services 3 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Manav Patnaik and Benjamin Budish, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accu