5月消费者物价指数：潜在通胀显示出逐渐放缓的迹象

FIGURE 2. Core inflation pressure eased in MayApr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25Barclays CPI inflation forecast(% y/y)Headline CPI inflationCore inflation excl administeredSticky inflation excl administeredServices excl administeredBoK forecastBarclays f'cst-10123456May-2020Aug-2020Nov-2020% y/yNote: annualised figures on core CPI index (sa)Source: Korea StatisticsOffice,Barclays ResearchRestricted - External Feb-2021May-2021Aug-2021Nov-2021Feb-2022Underlying inflation trendcore - Instantaneouscore - % 6m/6m saar May-2022Aug-2022Nov-2022Feb-2023May-2023Aug-2023Nov-2023Feb-2024May-2024Aug-2024Nov-2024core - % 3m/3m saarcore - % y/yBum Ki Son, CFA+ 65 6308 5291bumki.son@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore 1South Korea to implement smaller fuel tax cuts from May, Reuters, 22 April 2025FIGURE 3. FX pass-through to inflation likely to remain elevated andFIGURE 4. Agri and oil dropped,offsetby increased in livestockproducts prices pressure-6-4-202468Livestock productsProcessed foodDining-outOther personalservicesUtilitiesPublic servicesRentalsOilAgriculturalproducts% y/yApr-25May-25Source: Bank of Korea, Barclays ResearchIn the near term, we continue to expect headline inflation to hover around 2%, broadly inline with the BoK's target.Even as USDKRW fell and imports prices started to fall, thetransmission through industrial products other than oil has been relatively muted, with furthermark-ups in processed food prices and jumps in both textile and cosmetics products prices inMay. We believe this is due to businesses only gradually transferring costs to consumers andexpect more price mark-ups in June. Domestic oil prices dropped only 0.4% m/m (nsa) in May,even though global crude oil prices fell by more, partly due to the gradual rollback of fuel taxcuts (from 15% to 10% for gasoline, and from 23% to 15% for diesel and LPG,effective1 May1).We continue to track an easing in momentum fundamental price pressures.An average ofour underlying inflation gauges eased to 2.0% y/y in May, from 2.2% in April, albeit withrelatively high variations across the gauges. Our near-term forecasts are modestly lower thanthe BoK's forecasts, and we continue to expect an average 1.9% headline inflation in 2025. Inparticular, we believe reduced consumer inflation expectations, to 2.6% in May from 2.8% inApril, partly due to expectations of lower oil prices, is a positive developments. Furthermore, webroadly track a slowing in sequential momentum, as our pricediffusionindex stabilised in May.2 Source: Korea StatisticsOffice,Barclays Research4 June 2025 We maintain our forecasts of rate cuts in October 2025 and February 2026.Afterthecumulative 100bp of rate cuts in the past six meetings, we believe the BoK s now taking a moregradual approach to easing, and considers its monetary policy stance as neutral to moderatelyeasy. While below potential growth and a relatively stable inflation outlook continue to point tomore easing, we believe the pace of further rate cuts will be dependent on several factors.•With the Fed outlookshiftingto more cautious easing to tame inflation expectations, we•believe the BoK's next move is unlikely to be pre-emptive or aggressive.•Although there is some demand for easing, we believe the BoK is likely to become more wary,•given the expected turn in the fiscal stanceafterthe presidential election and the newadministration's preference for bigger government ( Presidential election: The return of biggovernment, 4 June 2025).•Fiscal expansion likely means: 1) support for growth; 2) upward price pressures; 3) confidence•restoration; 4) financial market tightening; and 5) upward pressure on long-term rates. Giventhis, we believe the BoK is likely to move into a wait-and-see and data-dependent mode.•The housing market in Seoul also remains relatively hot ahead of the introduction of the new•macroprudential regulation policy in July, which implies household loan growth will remainrelatively high in the next few months.3 FIGURE 7. Inflationdiffusionindex starting to stabiliseSource: Korea StatisticsOffice,Barclays Research Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Bum Ki Son, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For curren