5月上半月消费者物价指数（CPI）墨西哥央行不太可能在与通胀的博弈中退缩

Restricted - External Nestor Rodriguez+1 212 4125 564nestor.rodriguez@barclays.comBCI, USGabriel Casillas+ 1 212 526 7814gabriel.casillas@barclays.comBCI, US Source: INEGI, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3. Contribution of non-food core goods in H1 May0.000.010.010.000.01-0.02-0.04-0.020.000.020.040.060.080.1020112012201320142015%Note: The green dotted line is the pre-pandemic average (2011-19)Source: INEGI, Barclays Research22 May 2025 Inflation stickier, but we maintain our forecast of 3.8% at year-end, with core at 4.0%.These bi-weekly prints yielded 12-month headline inflation of 4.22% in the first half of May,above the 3.90% registered in the second half of April. Core inflation was relatively stable, at3.97%. A correction in meat prices in the coming months is something to be monitored, but fornow, we continue to think that baseeffectsfrom El Niño on agricultural prices last year shouldpush the headline figure below 3.5% y/y by the summer, before it increases again. We maintainour YE25 inflation forecast at 3.8% (YE26E: 4.2%). We think core will remain closer to 4.0%through the year (YE26E: 3.6%).Banxico should continue to ease.From a monetary policy standpoint, we believe Banxico willlook through noise from the non-core component and focus on core. In its previous decision,the board acknowledged that core inflation would remain sticky during Q2 (see Banxico- steadyas it goes), so we do not expect this print to significantly alter its view that there is space tocontinue calibrating its monetary stance. Although the bank could turn a bit more cautious, thesoftereconomic data and a well-behaved exchange rate should continue to support cuts. Thismorning, the revised print for Q1 GDP was still weak, with quarterly growth of just 0.2% q/q 2 FIGURE 5. CPI breakdown by major components**The contribution of components and subcomponents may not add to the overall number because of rounding(0.8% y/y). We continue to expect the board to cut its policy rate by 50bp in June, followed bytwo consecutive 25bp cuts, taking the reference rate to 7.50% before YE25.Further details from the inflation report.The core component was driven mainly by thecontribution of services (7.2bp) to headline inflation, particularly other services (4.5bp) andhousing (2.7bp), as well as goods (5.0bp), with processed foods adding 3.0bp and core non-food2.0bp. The main contributors to the non-core component was agricultural products (23.3bp),particularly meat & eggs (17.3bp), and fresh fruits & vegetables (6.0bp), as well as energy &governmenttariffs(-26.7bp;tariffs+0.5bp and energy -27.2bp). 3 Source: INEGI, Barclays Research22 May 2025 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Nestor Rodriguez and Gabriel Casillas, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal viewsabout any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the Investment Banking Dep