CrowdStrike（CRWD）2026财年第一季度：宏观经济放缓……下半年复苏？

Crowdstrike Holdings IncRatingOutperformPrice TargetCRWD371.00 USDAdjusted EPSF25AF26EF27ECRWD (USD)3.243.675.05OLD--3.955.58Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.CrowdStrike’s FQ1’26 earnings came in “just” at mid-point guide, and with no beat andraise the stock took a negative 6%+ dive in the aftermarket. On the main earnings call andour callback the company side stepped questions about the weakness and DOGE risk, andinstead focused on their demand strength and expected re-acceleration in H2. Certainly thismakes sense to us, too, as the channel checks and broader signals from other earnings (seePANW here and S here) all suggest demand came rapidly back in May.Promised H2 reacceleration seems straight forward to achieve.We believe CRWDremains a top priority for investment as companies continue to modernize and move toa cloud first infrastructure. With the easy ARR growth comp in the 2ndhalf of their priorFY driven by their mid 2024 outage (and one large deal being removed in Q3), and morenormal demand in the 2ndhalf of this FY it would naturally set up for a strong YoY growth re-acceleration. On top of this we anticipate gross-$ retention reaches 98% again.Many other growth signals showed well, particularly driven by Flex.RPO delivered itsstrongest Q1 YoY growth since COVID heydays of calendar 2022 and before. We think thiswas particularly driven by the success of Flex, which grew 124% YoY (Q1 adding $774MM inACV). Flex now accounts for $3.2B+ of total deal value vs. $6.8B of RPO - not a real apples-to-apples compare, but the relative size is instructive on how important Flex has become.These customers are driving a greater and greater maximum customer scale, with averagedeals size $1MM+ and $10MM+ deals growing 113% YoY.Bottom line gets a further 100bps boost.The company also executed an early Q1restructuring, where they reduced headcount by ~5%. This will add ~100 bps to theirmargins in the coming year, and free up capacity to invest in high return product lines.Investment ImplicationsWe tweak our model to reflect the latest weak Q1, but rebound in growth reaching ~116%NRR by the start of FY27 given easy comps. Using a 50/50 “rule of 40”-based multiplesregression (18x with outlier “halo” status), and our DCF (10% WACC, 3% growth) we get a1-year PT of $371 and maintain our Outperform rating.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 04 Jun 2025 04:05 UTC Completion Date: 04 Jun 2025 03:15 UTC 5,970.37121,732118,237 F27E96.862.419.380.3488.76371.00(24)%JanNA12M58.313.045.3 (347.00OLD)FinancialsRevenues (M)Cost of Goods Sold (M)Operating Earnings (M)FCF (M) F25AF26EF27ECAGR3,9544,8536,112--858.281,0561,290--879.891,0391,473--1,0651,2221,896--Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$550$500$450$400$350$300$25006/24 DETAILSNOTES FROM OUR CALLBACK WITH THE MANAGEMENTUS Federal exposure represents "only a small piece" of their business but is "always an opportunity",as the contractstend to be ultra-long in nature and the government contracts tend to be pretty sticky. They wouldn’t comment on it’s specificsize, but when we offered 3%, they didn’t push back that this was too far off (thus why we use it as our assumption in modelingrevenue headwinds in the 2ndhalf). This aligns with the efficiency and modernization goals that DOGE was targeting, whichthey believe plays to CrowdStrike's strengths. Over the past several months, they have achieved FedRAMP High Authorization,enabling them to pursue more government contracts.Management kept side stepping discussion of April weakness (and May re-acceleration).They seemed to acknowledgethat they experienced similar challenges as others in April, but even so the company “powered through” and is doing wellnow. They wanted focus calling the net new ARR performance for the quarter “strong” even though we challenged them onit’s relative weakness to prior Q1s. Regardless of April, several factors give them confidence in H2 reacceleration, includinga 97% gross retention rate, which serves as evidence of their stability. In the current market, more customers are embracingconsolidation, leading to lower total cost of ownership (TCO). This message resonates well with customers during times ofmacroeconomic uncertainty.The Google acquisition of Wiz, while not yet approved, they believe has caused confusion in the market (Are they going tomove off AWS? How will it work cross-clouds? Will the relationship be the same?).CrowdStrike believes this situation hascreated an opportunity for them.Since Wiz’s backend is built on AWS, the potential for innovation on other public clouds afterintegration remains uncertain. Also, as CSPM does not prevent breaches, agent capabilities are essential. Management believesWiz does not have a compelling agent offering (the product was initial