太阳能：价格有望企稳，供应缩窄

China (PRC) | Alternative Energy Solar: Prices Expected to Stabilize, withNarrowing Supply Recently Published Johnson Wan * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8083 | johnson.wan@jefferies.comAlan Lau * | Equity AnalystEH: 1Q25 miss on postponed delivery;mgmt guides strong growth to startfrom 2Q25Solar:Upstream Prices Stabilized;Domestic PV Inst Surged to 45GW inApr '25Maxwell:4Q24/1Q25 Double Miss,withImpairment Loss;Progress inNon-solar BizSolar:Lukewarmmarketwithshrinkingenddemand;Pricescontinued to fallCSIQ:1Q25 In Line;Strong 2Q25Guidance;Cutting FY25 Vol AmidPolicy UncertaintyThe Big Beautiful (Draft) Bill: MoreScalpelthan Sledgehammer:FullTakesSolar: Prices Continued to Drop Post-Labor Day, with Demand NarrowingIntersolar Day 2 FeedbackIntersolar Europe Day 1 ConferenceFeedbackeVTOL is Vertically Taking Off; EHangPioneers UAM Future - Initiate withBUYSungrow:NDR call takeaways-Growth/GPM outlook on Inverter/ESS,US mkt disruptionsDQ: 1Q25 NL continued; UTR low at33%; Liquid assets remained healthyat $2.15bJKS: 1Q25 Gross Loss with less USshipment; aggressive ESS target; startbuybackHZ First: 1Q25 In-line; Mgmt ExpectsGPM Recovery to Continue in 2025with Better MixSungrow: 4Q24/1Q25 Strong DoubleBeat; US Tariffs + ESS CompetitionRemain Key ConcernsSCEnergy:4Q24BeatsAmidRMB886mnOne-off Cost;GPM toImprove with Higher Overseas Mix SIA reported N-/P-type poly prices dropped by 2.85%/stayed flat WoW atRMB37.5/31.3 per kg. G10L/G12R/G12 N-type wafer prices were flat WoWat RMB0.95/1.10/1.3 per pc. Per SolarZoom, M10/G12R TOPCon cell priceswere down/flat at RMB0.255/0.27 per W. M10 TOPCon module prices wereflat WoW at RMB0.68 per W. Per SCI, 3.2/2.0mm SG prices dropped toRMB21/13 per m2; SG inventory days continued to go up to 29.12d. Polysilicon:SIA reportedprices of N-/P-type poly dropped by 2.85%/stayed flat WoW atRMB37.5/31.3 per kg.Per SIA, poly players gave in on poly prices, with: 1) downstream playersnot making any concessions on procurement price; 2) production cost decreasing with priceretreat of metal silicon; 3) the upcoming wet season, when tariff level would decline materially.SIA noted invty of low-grade poly declined to a relatively low level. Currently, 11 poly playersare still producing, and all of them are operating under reduced UTR. SIA expects capacityreplacement to start in Jun'25, and mthly poly output to stay roughly flat MoM in June. Wafer:SIA reportedG10L N-type wafer (182*183.75mm, 130μm)price stayed flat WoW atRMB0.95 per pc;G12R N-type wafer (182*210mm, 130μm)price stayed flat WoW at RMB1.10per pc;G12 N-type wafer (130μm)price stayed flat WoW at RMB1.3 per pc. Wafer pricescontinued to stabilize last week. On the supply side, wafer players showed strong willingnessto support prices, and certain players continued to cut UTR. UTR of two tier-1 players stayed at50% and 56%; Integrated/specialized players' UTR dropped to 54-80/54-80%. On the demandside, procurement from cell players improved, esp. for G12 wafer products, which also helpedto stabilize wafer prices. With shrinking supply and strong willingness to uphold prices, SIAexpects wafer prices to stabilize in ST. Cell:SolarZoom reportedM10L TOPCon cellprices dropped to RMB0.25-0.255 per W, withdemand relatively weaker than for other sizes of cell products;G12R TOPCon cellprices stayedat RMB0.26-0.27 per W;G12 TOPCon cellprice dropped to RMB0.265-0.275 per W. With theexpectation of weak demand in Jun'25, cell price movement in ST may depend on the extentof the cell UTR cut.Silver paste price decreased to RMB8,559/4,710 per kg (front/back) lastweek. Module:Per PVinfoLink,prices of new TOPCon module orders stayed stable atRMB0.65-0.66 per W last week.PVinfoLink reported end demand declined materially in the2nd half of May, and the weak demand might persist till Jul-Aug. As certain players arealready unable to deliver module products with prices as low as RMB0.65/W and playerswith aggressive quotes previously also starting to adjust pricing strategy, PVInfoLink expectsmodule prices to stabilize in ST.EVA/POE film prices dropped to RMB5.4/7.6 per sqm. Solar glass(SG):Per SCI,3.2/2.0mm SG pricesdropped to RMB21/13 per m2. SG productioncapacity stayed at99,990t/d.Inventory daysincreased by 2.37% WoW to 29.16d. Per SCI,SGGPMinMay'25dropped by5.31 pctMoMto-6.18%, mainly with prices retreat SG, despiteslight price retreat of soda ash and quartz sand. Looking into Jun'25, SCI expected SG GPM tocontinue to narrow, with SG prices retreat, on narrowing demand + stable supply. 852 3767 1113 | alan.lau@jefferies.com Recently Published EH: 1Q25 miss on postponed delivery; mgmt guides strong growth to start from 2Q25(HERE): EH reported 1Q25 Rev/adjusted NP of RMB26/(31)mn, down YoY from RMB62/(10) in 1Q24. 1Q25 top line was impacted by decline in eVTOL delivery at 11 units in 1Q25 vs. 26 units in 1Q24,due to seasonality and delayed delivery, as some clients await OC approval. EH maintained FY25 revenue target of RMB900mn and guided stronggrowth f