杰富瑞前瞻：跨行业研究信号

USA | Thematic Research Jef Ahead: Cross-Sector Signals from Research This piece highlights insights from our US research team based on companystatements, management interactions, and expert events. Each data pointcontributes to staying ahead of consensus. This week, we highlight significantsigns of wear on federal and academic research investment. We address theongoing AI debate with key insights from our annual Public Tech conference.And, we anticipate near-term declines in China-to-US imports. Consumer:Our proprietary survey data showed a distinct (+) shift in consumer sentiment with areading of 99, its highest level since mid-Feb. Further, 54% of respondents increased or maintainedimpulse shopping in May vs. 48% last month. That said, heightened labor market stress wasexpressed with expected layoffs slightly higher and hourly workers seeing shifts cut up ~8% on themonth. Financials:V & MA's combined US volume growth as a multiple of PCE growth ex-Leap Year andEaster timing slowed only slightly to 1.3x vs. 1.4x in 4Q. We take the modest compression as anencouraging sign for the US cash-to-card growth runway after 4Q24's elevated spread was drivenby a spike in discretionary/holiday spending. Health Care:The state of academic and federal spend appears bleak. Our proprietary survey,representing $20B of institutional research spending, >50% funded with NIH/NSF dollars andencompassing >10k annual grants, saw 75% of respondents report a weak A&G end-market.Further, 30% noted significant declines in research spending. Meanwhile, 94% experienced NIH/NSF grant cancellations and 90% had seen YTD funding declines of an avg. -20% y/y. Virtuallyall respondents reported an avg. -16% YTD decrease in research spending. ASCO '25 takeawaysincluded a meaningful update on RP1 in anti-PD-1 failed melanoma pivotal data that supports ourbullish view into REPL's July PDUFA date. Further, validation data for Oncodetect confirmed clinicalutility in recurrence and prognostic value of using ctDNA. Takeaways from hosting our breastcancer KOL at ASCO are bullish for GILD, suggesting Trodelvy may be the new standard of carein 1L TNBC. Industrials:Following five months of declines, the Apr. Conference Board's Consumer ConfidenceIndex increased 12pts M/M to 98. Notably, this was already visible before the May 12th US-Chinatrade deal and gained momentum afterward. TMT:We hosted 60+ companies at our annual Public Tech Conference in Newport, where sentimentwas notably improved vs last year (~6/10 vs ~2/10). We also note a shift in consensus on AI'spotential productivity implies it is just a matter of time until the tech transition shifts into high gear.We upgraded Unity to Buy, citing our confidence in its path to growth acceleration and the c.15-20%performance uplift from the new mgmt team's improvements to adv targeting. Transport & Logistics:Real-time estimated arrivals import data implies China-to-U.S. arrivals willdecline 30-60% in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, tariff reprieve that came in May (a 158% w/wjump in China to US bookings) likely won't be felt until July due to lags between capacity aligningto bookings and transit time. Utilities:Our analysis of the latest J.D. Power Residential Electric Utility customer satisfactionscores finds customer satisfaction declined for a fourth consecutive year. Jefferies Equity Research * | Equity Analyst(888) JEFFERIES | research_support@jefferies.com Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Analyst Certification: I, Jefferies Equity Research, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives compensationbased in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulationsmay prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervalsas appropriate in the analyst's judgement. Investment Recommendation Record (Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedJune 4, 2025 5:56 A.M.Recommendation DistributedJune 4, 2025 5:56 A.M. Company Specific Disclosures Steven DeSanctis owns shares of Visa Inc. common shares. Steven DeSanctis owns shares of Visa Inc. common shares. For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://java