利润预测更新；等待长期增长故事

FY12/24AFY12/25EFY12/26E323.4335.0353.0320.7339.1356.779.93111.98139.4131.335.638.3 FY12/27E366.0367.4158.0140.0 Sho Fukuhara * | Equity Analyst813 5251 6156 | sfukuhara@jefferies.comShintaro Yoshida * | Equity Associate+81 3 6830 3644 | syoshida1@jefferies.com.Source: Company data The Long View: NabtescoInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferNabtescohas leading market share in key components used forindustrial robots, hydraulic excavators, commercial aircraft, marine vessels,commercial vehicles, automatic doors, and packaging machines. However,within these end-markets, the company's operating profits are vulnerableto the cyclicality of industrial robot demand and ongoing weakness inChina's hydraulic excavator demand. Besides lingering downside risks toNabtesco's profits from demand uncertainties and impairment losses atoverseas subsidiaries, mgmt may need to optimize its existing businessportfolio to trigger a market re-rating on the shares, in our view.Base Case,¥2500, +7%Nabtesco should be entering a profit growthphase from FY25 as the completion of industrialrobot makers' destocking activity should leadto order growth in the company's profit-drivingreductiongear business.However,lingeringmacroeconomic uncertainties amidst the tariffdisputesuggest downside risks to currentmarketexpectations on the magnitude ofNabtesco's profit recovery. Our price target of¥2,500 is based on an EV/EBITDA of 8x, onestandard deviation below the average during2022-2025 year-to-date, and our base-case FY25EBITDA forecast.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Feasibility towards achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. 2) New productintroduction that meet country-level environmental regulations. 3) Risk control with suppliers amidstnatural disasters.Company Target(s): 1)Reduce CO2 emissions by 63% from 2015 level by 2030.2)Reduce CO2emissions to net-zero by 2050.3)Supporting suppliers to establish goals for CO2 emission reduction.Qs to Mgmt: 1)How to sustain the effort of reducing GHG mission amidst prolonged supply chainconstraints?2)How to secure profitability by controlling R&D for new products that meet ESGrequirements?Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,¥3000, +28%FY25 sales exceed our base-case forecast by10%,which leads to OP beating our base-scenario forecast by 34%; bull-case scenario:stronger sales volume gains in FY25 than weexpect in our base case, better demand forreduction gear and hydraulic components, higherprofitability improvement in Nabtesco's aircraftequipment business; our bull-case price target of¥3,000 is based on an EV/EBITDA of 8x and ourbull-case FY25 EBITDA forecast (¥45.36bn). Downside Scenario,¥2100, -10%FY25sales miss our base-scenario forecastby9%,which leads to OP falling short ofour base-scenario forecast by 31%; bear-casescenario: weaker sales volume gains in FY25,further demand correction for reduction gear andhydraulic components, deteriorating profitabilityin the aircraft equipment business; our bear-caseprice target of ¥2,100 is based on an EV/EBITDAof 8x and our bear-case FY25 EBITDA forecast(¥31.88bn).CatalystsPositiveshare-pricecatalystsNabtesco reporting higher OP in Q2 FY25 thanconsensus estimates; 2) improving excavatordemand from foreign and local brands in China;and 3) Boeing's announcement of productionboosts. On the other hand, negative catalystswould be ongoing slowdown in total orders,deterioration in market position of Japanesehydraulicexcavator makers,and productioncutbacks at Boeing or delays in aircraft deliveries. include:1)2 Table 1 - Nabtesco: Earnings Summary.IFRSFY12/21FY12/22FY12/23FY12/24FY12/25 Q1FY12/25 Q2 JefEFY12/25 Q3 JefEFY12/25 Q4 JefEFY12/25 JefE (new)FY12/22 JefE (old)FY12/25 GuidanceFY12/25 ConsensusFY12/26 JefE (new)FY12/22 JefE (old)FY12/26 ConsensusFY12/27 JefE (new)FY12/22 JefE (old)FY12/27 ConsensusFY12/28 JefE (new)FY12/22 JefE (old)FY12/28 ConsensusSource: Jefferies estimates, company data, FactSet (as of 2 June)Table 2 - Nabtesco: Quarterly Sales & OP.(¥mn)External SalesComponent Solution (CMP)Transport Solution (TRS)Accessibility Solution (ACB)Manufacturing Solution (MFR)Total External SalesOPComponent Solution (CMP)Transport Solution (TRS)Accessibility Solution (ACB)Manufacturing Solution (MFR)CorporateTotal OPFX assumption (¥)USDCNYEURCHFSource: Jefferies estimates, company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 2 - Nabtesco: Reduction Gear Monthly Orders YoY.-100-50050100150200201220132014(YoY, %)Source: Company dataTable 3 - Nabtesco: Segment Breakdown.(¥mn)SalesComponent Solution (CMP)Transport Solution (TRS)Accessibility Solution (ACB)Manufacturing Solution (MFR)CorporateTotal SalesExternal SalesComponent Solution (CMP)Precision Reduction GearHydraulic