航运日报-集装箱运价坚挺，但近期红海航线回归存疑

Day AgoChangeWeek AgoYear AgoYTD 2025$39,700-7.3%$40,900$43,500$38,800$46,600-6.2%$47,900$51,700$46,100$47,700-6.3%$49,200$52,900$47,100$33,400-0.3%$35,200$47,200$39,000$36,500-0.5%$38,200$50,700$42,100$36,900-0.5%$38,500$51,600$42,600$31,200-2.9%$33,000$50,000$34,700$33,900-2.7%$35,600$53,100$37,500$34,200-2.6%$36,000$53,900$38,000Day AgoChangeWeek AgoYear AgoYTD 2025$33,100-4.8%$34,800$62,500$28,800$36,600-4.4%$38,300$66,600$32,400$37,500-4.5%$39,200$67,800$33,200$22,8001.8%$20,900$39,200$20,100$26,3001.5%$24,400$43,400$23,800$26,7001.1%$24,800$44,200$24,400Day AgoChangeWeek AgoYear AgoYTD 2025$15,0003.3%$15,400$22,200$14,000$19,2002.6%$19,000$27,100$18,300$19,6003.6%$19,700$27,800$18,900$8,5000.0%$9,200$13,400$8,100$10,9000.0%$11,600$15,900$10,500$11,4001.8%$12,300$16,400$11,100$9,6000.0%$9,800$14,200$8,400$12,3000.0%$12,500$16,200$11,100$12,8000.8%$13,100$16,600$11,600Day AgoChangeWeek AgoYear AgoYTD 2025$4,0000.0%$4,000$30,000$4,000$14,0000.0%$15,000$40,000$12,000$29,0000.0%$30,000$53,000$23,000$50,700-3.2%$55,900$68,000$37,100$53,500-3.0%$58,700$71,400$40,100$55,000-3.1%$60,400$73,500$41,700Day AgoChangeWeek AgoYear AgoYTD 2025$3,2000.0%$3,000$5,400$3,500$4,4000.0%$4,100$6,600$4,600$2,3000.0%$2,200$5,400$3,100$3,6000.0%$3,400$6,500$4,200 Omar Nokta * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8405 | onokta@jefferies.comJaeyoung McGarry * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8358 | jmcgarry@jefferies.comEmily Harkins * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8584 | eharkins@jefferies.comContainer rates have strengthened overthe past two weeks with the Transpacificinitially leading and now Asia-Europe, Asia-Med and the North-South trades gainingmomentum.The Asia-USWC route isseeing rates at $3,500/feu, up from $2,500/feu before the China-US trade agreement,andmarket quotes for next week areabove $5,000/feu. Whether these big gainscome to fruition remains to be seen, butgiven the surge in spot bookings and thetight overall capacity in the region, thereislikely to be some meaningful near-term gains. According to Vizion, China-US bookings surged again last week withover 216,000 teu booked, compared with228,000 teu the week prior and the 91,000teu bookings on average during the priorfiveweeks(118,000 teu during 1Q25).These past two weeks have more thanoffset the decline during the April "freeze"and suggest activity has been driven by acombination of pent-up demand, forward-buying and peak season.Some of this excitement is tempered bynews of increased capacity expected toutilize the Red Sea / Suez Canal. CMA-CGM is shifting its Med Express service,which serves India, Middle East and Medmarkets,through the Suez Canal.Thisserviceconsists of 10 containerships,which are a small portion of the company's600+ ships in operation and the 75+ thatwouldnormally transit the through theRedSea that are mostly diverting.Alleyesare on plans for its other routesand also on its Ocean Alliance partnersCOSCOand Evergreen.As we havediscussed previously, Red Sea diversionshave soaked up 12% of container capacityandthe difference between a healthymarket and a very pressured one. Crude Tanker RatesChart 1 - VLCC Crude Tanker Spot Rates per day (eco).$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000Jan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCChart 3 - Suezmax Crude Tanker Spot Rates per day (eco).$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,000$70,000$80,000Jan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCChart 5 - Aframax Crude Tanker Spot Rates per day (eco).$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000Jan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Jul-24Jul-24Jul-24 Product Tanker RatesChart 7 - LR2 Product Tanker Spot Rates per day (eco).$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000Jan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCChart 9 - MR Product Tanker Spot Rates per day (eco).$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,000Jan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Jul-24Jul-24Oct-24 Dry Bulk RatesChart 11 - Capesize Spot Rates per day (eco).$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,000Jan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCChart 13 - Kamsarmax Spot Rates per day.$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000Jan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCChart 15 - Ultramax Spot Rates per day.$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000Jan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. .Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCChart 16 - Ultramax Annual Spot Rate Averages.$28,000$24,000$-$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,00020212022Source: Baltic Exc