伊格斯汽车（APE）：交易情况有所改善但仍未达预期

FY24AFY25EFY26E2,0042,1276867292272548998-17%11%20x18x13x12x4.2%4.6% FY27E2,2492,37978784928131610812210%12%16x14x11x10x4.8%5.1% John Campbell * | Equity Analyst+61 439052387 | jcampbell1@jefferies.comTom Chapman * | Equity Analyst+61 438499671 | tom.chapman@jefferies.com Company DescriptionEagersEagers Automotive Ltd. engages in the management of automotive dealerships. Its activities include the sale of new and used vehicles; distributionand sale of parts, and accessories; repair and servicing of vehicles; provision of extended warranties, facilitation of finance and leasing in respectof motor vehicles; and the ownership of property and investments. The company has grown significantly over the past twenty years via acquisitionand it now has around 12% share of all new motor vehicle retailing in Australia. Eagers operates through the following segments: Car Retailing,Truck Retailing, Property, and Investment. The Car Retailing segment offers a range of automotive products and services, including new, used,maintenance and repair services, parts, extended service contracts, brokerage, and protection for vehicles. The Truck Retailing segment providesproducts and services, including new trucks, used trucks, truck maintenance and repair services, truck parts, extended service contracts, truckprotection products, and other aftermarket products. The Property segment includes the acquisition and ownership of commercial propertiesuse as facility premises for its motor dealership operations. The company was founded by Edward Eager and Frederick Eager on January 7, 1913and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.Company Valuation/RisksEagersWe utilise one valuation methodology to arrive at our PT - DCF.We have identified 5 key risks to investing in APE: 1) The cycle — Though new car volumes are still below peak 2017 levels, gross margins onselling new and used cars are high and potentially at record levels. We see downside in margins though as supply opens up. The interplay of thesetwo factors will be a key driver of medium-term earnings; 2) House prices — Australian house prices have enjoyed a boom during Covid drivenby global stimulus and ultra-low rates. A significant reversal in median house prices (the negative wealth effect) would be highly detrimental todemand for new vehicles. This remains a key risk on exiting covid; 3) Disruptive business models — These would include ride-sharing / short-term rental business models; direct-to-retail customer business models; and online business models impacting volumes sold and serviced bytraditional auto retailers; 4) Shift to EVs away from ICE vehicles being accelerated by government policy; and 5) Change to certain OEM traditionalchannels to market with a move from a franchise model to an agency model, which has created some uncertainty.In terms of upside risk to our valuation, if new vehicle supply remains constrained into the medium term under a changed manufacturing /distribution approach of the major OEMs (less production, better margin per vehicle), then it is feasible that auto dealer margins remain elevatedinto the medium term.Analyst Certification:I, John Campbell, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Tom Chapman, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:John Campbell is employed by Jefferies (Australia) Pty Ltd, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Tom Chapman is employed by Jefferies (Australia) Pty Ltd, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, includin