知乎（ZH）：由人工智能支持的用户参与度提升；预期稳固的成本控制

2023A2024A2025E2026E4,199.03,599.02,995.03,041.0(659.0)(96.0)(122.0)(67.0) Thomas Chong * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8016 | thomas.chong@jefferies.comZoey Zong * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8163 | zoey.zong@jefferies.com The Long View: ZhihuInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Zhihu is a well-known and trusted online content community platform,whereusers share knowledge,experience,and insights,and findanswers.•The company has a fast-growing, diverse, and highly-engaged user base.It is the first Q&A-inspired online community in China to launch a paidmembership program.•New services focusing on specific verticals, including online educationand e-commerce, diversify its monetization channels.•Strong technology infrastructure and data insights empower businessdevelopment in content, community, and commercialization.Base Case,$5.2, +30%•Chinaonlineadvertisingmaintainshealthyregulations.•Zhihu continues to offer high-quality contentthat meets user preferences and demands.•Zhihu’s new monetization channels, such asIP-based monetization and online education,become new growth drivers.•PT of US$5.2 based on DCF valuation.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Customer Privacy -Companies in the Internet & Media Services industry relyon customer data to innovate on new tools and services, while the use and storage of a wide range ofcustomer data, such as personal, demographic, content, and behavioral data, raise privacy concerns.2)Data Security -Companies in this industry are well-positioned to uncover revenue opportunities byproviding secure software and services to meet demand for data protection.Company Target(s): 1)Ensure effective, comprehensive protection of users’ privacy. 2)Continue tostrengthen the network information security capabilities to reduce overall risk related to network andinformation security.Qs to Mgmt: 1)What are you investing in to protect users’ data?2)What is the trend for operatingexpenses in future years?Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. recoversandgrowthundernew Upside Scenario,$6.36, +59%•Stronger-than-expectedgenerated content growth.•Stronger-than-expectedgrowth.•More monetization channels with highermonetization rate.•PT of US$6.36 based on DCF valuation. Downside Scenario,$2.65, -34%•Higher-than-expected user acquisition cost.•Lower-than-expected user base growth.•Online advertising recovery speed less thanexpectation.•PT of US$2.65 based on DCF valuation.Catalysts•Stronger-than-expected user base growth.•Higher-than-expectedbudget on platform.•New monetization channels perform betterthan expected. onlineadvertising2 high-qualityuser-paiduserbase (3)2025 outlook.ZH believes it has entered a new phase of monetization. These include(a) marketing services. Low-quality content has dropped to a low level with AI unlocking newmarketing opportunities; (b) paid memberships. Content enhancements in short, mid and longform contents; (c) vocational training. Migration to a more socially engaging and knowledge-based sharing model; (4)Capital return.The board announces 2025 Repurchase Program whichwill be 10% of total number of issues shares. ZH proposes that it can repurchase shares fromtime to time in the open market, depending on market conditions. It plans to fund repurchasesfrom existing cash balance.Valuation and risks.We maintain our Buy and PT, factoring in the latest trends post result.Key risks include: (1) regulations on content community and advertising are more stringentthan expected; (2) paid membership growth is slower than expected; (3) intense competitionin content community sector; and (4) softer-than-expected monetization of online advertising,content-commerce solutions, paid memberships, and other new initiatives.Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 1 - ZH US: Income Statement.Income Statement (ZH US)RMB mnTotal RevenueYoY % changeCost of revenueGross profitGross marginSales and marketing expenseGeneral and administrative expenseResearch and development expenseOperating ProfitYoY % changeOperating marginNon-GAAP operating profitYoY % changeNon-GAAP operating marginNet IncomeYoY % changeNet marginNon-GAAP net incomeYoY % changeNon-GAAP net marginSource: Company, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 2 - ZH US: Balance Sheet.Balance Sheet (ZH US)RMBmnCash and cash equivalentsTerm depositsShort term investmentsTrade receivablesAmounts due from related partiesPrepayments and other current assetsTotal current assetsProperty and equipment, netIntangible assets, netRight-of-use assetsLong-term investmentsTerm depositsOther non-current assetsTotal non-