Cleanaway Waste Management Limited (CWY AU) 股票研究报告

2025E2026E4,098.54,422.83,863.84,117.3796.1867.1199245 2027E4,987.54,346.0996.8297 Amit Kanwatia, CFA * | Equity Analyst61 2 9364 2937 | akanwatia@jefferies.comAnthony Moulder * | Equity Analyst61 2 9364 2936 | amoulder@jefferies.com The Long View: CleanawayInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWaste volumes are defensive, growing by around 1% per annum— largelydriven by population growth and activity. We expect the business to delivermid-single-digit organic revenue growth, translating into higher earningsgrowth from leverage to its network size and scale.The regulatory environment is evolving toward the development of a circulareconomy, supportive of investment in post-collection activities like resourcerecovery and reprocessing. Energy from waste (Efw) could represent a farbigger investment opportunity over the medium term, as Australia beginsthe adoption of these technologies widely used in Europe. Such investmentsare expected to further improve the competitive position of Cleanaway.Base Case,AUD3.23, +18%Waste volumes are expected to continue torecover from Covid-related impact, particularlyin the C&I business; the recovery is expectedin 2025 as inefficiencies from labour improve.Thebusiness is expected to continue todeliver contract wins and manage customerchurn, resulting in stable market share growth.Managementis targeting to deliver marginimprovement over the medium term. Our SotPvaluation methodology gives a Base Case PT of$3.23.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): Material issues are: 1) Sustainability targets of society - This is the growthpotential available from investments in the re-use of existing waste streams. 2) Workplace health andsafety - The target is to achieve "Zero Harm". 3) Environmental impact and compliance - Mishandling ofwaste could impact social licence to operate. 4) Climate change - The need to reduce GHG emissionsand develop carbon abatement targets over the medium term.Company Target(s): 1) Carbon abatement cost curve and long-term targets to be set in FY22.Targeting 75% capture of landfill gases. 2) ESG measures are included in the compensationframework. 3) FY22 Female workforce representation targets: 22% management roles, 7% operations;21% overall.Qs to Mgmt:1) How is Cleanaway looking to improve environmental and operational hazards whileproviding waste management services? 2) What is the business doing to reduce its CO2 footprint andmethane emissions from landfills? 3) Explain opportunities in the business towards developing lowcarbon solutions?ESG Sector Deep DivePlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,AUD3.71, +36%The upside to Cleanaway could come from thedelivery of growth through acquisitions / deliveryof Footprint 2030 recycling infrastructure notincludedin our base case and price target.Given the expanding value chain, there are stillsignificant opportunities over the next severalyears.The delivery of higher-than-expectedimprovementin EBITDA margins by 100bpsshouldprovide~4.5%earnings growth.Ourupside case PT is $3.71. Downside Scenario,AUD2.23, -18%While the industry is expected to be rational,higher-than-expected competition could result inprice decreases and margin erosion. Volumescould remain under pressure from a slower-than-forecast recovery in macroeconomic activity.Taking these risks into account would see ourprice target reduced to $2.23.CatalystsCleanaway is expected to invest in the Energyfrom waste facilities, in addition to the expectedinvestmentin the ongoing development ofBluePrint 2030 waste reprocessing and recyclinginfrastructure.AGM in October. 2 Figure 2 - Cleanaway Profit and Loss Statement.A$mn (Post-AASB 16)Solid WasteIndustrial & WasteLiquid Waste and HealthCorporate / OtherGross RevenueNet RevenueSolid WasteIndustrial & WasteLiquid Waste and HealthCorporate / OtherEquity accounted investmentsGroup EBITDADepreciation and AmortisationGroup EBITNet interest costsProfit before TaxTax expenseMinoritiesUnderlying NPATAbnormals after taxReported NPATUnderlying EPS (Acps)DPS (Acps)EBITDA marginsSolid WasteIndustrial & WasteLiquid Waste and HealthGroupSource: Company data, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionCleanawayCleanaway is Australia’s leading waste management, industrial and environmental services company headquartered in Melbourne, Australia. Thebusiness provides waste collection services across all types of solid and liquid waste streams as well as owns and operates post collectionfacilities like transfer stations, resource recovery and recycling facilities, and landfills. The company has significant presence in municipal andC&I waste streams.Company Valuation/RisksCleanawayOur valuation is based on sum-of-the-parts, using 12-m