波音公司MAX更新：5月已交付19架，生产率约31架/月

MAX Update – 19 Deliveries So Farin May, Production Rate ~31/Mo Follows 29 Deliveries in April BAOVERWEIGHTU.S. Aerospace & DefenceNEUTRALPrice TargetUSD 210.00Price (27-May-25)USD 201.03Potential Upside/Downside+4.5%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research MAX deliveries consist of a mix ofaircraftthat were produced prior to the grounding beingliftedin late 2020 (storage) along withaircraftthat have been produced since then(offtheline).We estimate 48 MAX deliveries so far in Q2 (five storage, 43offline; one delivery to China),following 104 in Q1 (13 storage, 91offline; 12 deliveries to China), 35 in Q4 2024 (four out ofstorage; nine deliveries to China), 90 in Q3 (19 out of storage; 20 deliveries to China), 69 in Q2 (14out of storage; five to China), 66 in Q1 (13 out of storage; 17 to China), and 387 (37 out of storage)in 2023. U.S. Aerospace & Defense David Strauss+1 212 526 5580david.strauss@barclays.comBCI, US We estimate that ~55 (down from ~450), or ~40% of the MAXaircraftthat are still ininventory (~145), areaircraftthat have been in storage since the grounding.Of theremainingaircraftthat are in inventory (~90 that have comeoffthe line since the grounding waslifted),we estimate that ~60% are for North American airlines and ~25% are for Chinese airlines,with ~50% having been parked for more than a year. We estimate there are 28 MAX-7 ininventory (parked for ~38 months on average) and five MAX-10 in inventory (parked for ~18months on average). Joshua Korn+1 212 526 3283joshua.korn@barclays.comBCI, US Srividya Vinjamuri+1 212 526 7536srividya.vinjamuri@barclays.comBCI, US We track first flights ofaircraftcomingoffthe production line, and our methodologyimplies a MAX production rate at ~31/mo, just below recent high ~32/mo. Benjamin Tomick+1 212 526 8926benjamin.tomick@barclays.comBCI, US MAX Tracker MAX deliveries consist of a mix ofaircraftthat were produced prior to the grounding beingliftedin late 2020 (storage) along withaircraftthat have been produced since then(offthe line). FIGURE 1. Total MAX Deliveries by Month Since Restart Source: Cirium and Barclays Research To estimate actual Boeing production levels relative to stated rates (as production isn’t actuallystatic), we also track first flights ofaircraftcomingoffthe production line, which we estimatetypically occurs fairly close to completion of final assembly. This methodology implies a MAXproduction rate at ~31/mo, just below recent high ~32/mo. FIGURE 3. Number of New 737 MAXAircraftFlying for the First Time in the Prior 30 Days Post the restart, most MAX deliveries came from storage through mid-2021, while the majorityhave come fromoffthe line since then. We estimate that ~40% of MAXaircraftstill in inventory (~145) areaircraftthat have been instorage since the grounding, with many for Chinese operators. FIGURE 5. MAX in Inventory Produced pre-December 2020 (during Grounding) Source: Cirium and Barclays Research In total, we estimate that of the ~1,445 MAX deliveries since restart in late 2020, roughly 30%have come from storage. So far in Q2, five out of 48 deliveries came from storage, following 13 of104 in Q1, four of 35 in Q4 2024, 19 of 90 in Q3, 14 of 69 in Q2, 13 of 66 in Q1, and 37 of 387 in2023. FIGURE 7. MAX Monthly Deliveries from Storage Source: Cirium and Barclays Research Source: Cirium and Barclays Research We estimate that storageaircraftmost recently delivered were parked for over five years onaverage. FIGURE 11. Average Days in Storage for MAX Delivered from Inventory Each Month Source: Cirium and Barclays Research We estimate that many of theaircraftthat remain to be delivered from storage are for Chineseairlines and have now been parked for over five years on average. FIGURE 13. MAX in Inventory by Months in Storage Produced pre-December 2020 Of the remainingaircraftthat are in inventory (~90 that have comeoffline), ~50% have nowbeen parked for more than a year. We estimate there are are 28 MAX-7 in inventory (parked for~38 months on average) and five MAX-10 in inventory (parked for ~18 months on average). Source: Cirium and Barclays Research Barclays | Boeing Co. Analyst(s) Certification(s): I, David Strauss, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures