空客和波音生产与交付追踪——5月MAX交付量较少，33架 月的生产率意味着6月将回升

4/224/295/65/135/205/276/36/106/176/24BA TotalAirbus TotalRestricted - External European Aerospace & DefenceNEUTRALU.S. Aerospace & DefenceNEUTRALU.S. Aerospace & DefenseDavid Strauss+1 212 526 5580david.strauss@barclays.comBCI, USJoshua Korn+1 212 526 3283joshua.korn@barclays.comBCI, USBenjamin Tomick+1 212 526 8926benjamin.tomick@barclays.comBCI, USSrividya Vinjamuri+1 212 526 7536srividya.vinjamuri@barclays.comBCI, USEuropean Aerospace & DefenceMilene Kerner+33 (0)1 4458 4002milene.kerner@barclays.comBBI, Paris We have found that the number of MAX and 787 first flights from inventory (including storageandaircraftoffthe production line) during the prior 30 days correlates well with the number ofdeliveries during the following 30 days. We estimate 33 MAX and six 787 first flights over the lastmonth.FIGURE 3. Next 30 Days' 737 MAX Projected Deliveries0102030405060Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Projected DeliveriesActual DeliveriesSource: Cirium, FlightAware, Barclays Research estimatesFIGURE 4. Next 30 Days' 787 Projected Deliveries02468101214Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Projected DeliveriesActual DeliveriesSource: Cirium, FlightAware, Barclays Research estimates2 Production LevelsTo estimate actual Airbus and Boeing production levels relative to stated rates (as productionisn’t actually static), we also track first flights ofaircraftcomingoffthe production line, whichwe estimate typically occurs fairly close to completion of final assembly. This methodologyimplies current Airbus production rates for the A320 Family at ~37/month (vs. low 50s/mo), A220at ~6/mo (vs. 7), A350 at ~3/mo (vs. 6), and A330 at ~3/mo (in line). For Boeing, this implies 737at ~33/mo (ramping to 38), 787 at ~5/mo (vs. 5-6), 767 at ~2/mo (vs. 4), and 777 at ~2/mo (vs. 3).FIGURE 5. Number of New A320 SeriesAircraftFlying for the First Time in Prior 30 DaysSource: FlightAware, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 6. Number of New A220/A330/A350AircraftFlying for the First Time in Prior 30 Days0246810121416Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Source: FlightAware, Barclays Research Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24Jun-24Sep-24Dec-24Mar-25Jun-25A220A330A3503 Source: FlightAware, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 8. Number of New Boeing WBAircraftFlying for the First Time in Prior 30 Days012345678910Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Source: FlightAware, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 9. Number of New 737/787/A320/A350AircraftFlying for the First Time in Prior 30 Days01020304050607080Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Source: FlightAware, Barclays Research Inventory LevelsBased on manufacturers’ stated production rates, we estimate that Airbus now has ~103completed A320 Familyaircraftin inventory. We estimate Boeing now has ~147 completed 737MAXs (including 33 MAX 7/10) and ~47 787s in inventory.FIGURE 10. Airbus A320 FamilyAircraftin InventorySource: Cirium, Barclays Research estimatesFIGURE 11. Boeing 737 MAX and 787Aircraftin Inventory050100150200250300350400450500Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Source: Cirium, Barclays Research estimates Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25737 MAX787 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, David Strauss and Milene Kerner, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about anyor all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectlyrelated to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking acti