贝克休斯公司：市场停滞时的差异化

Differentiationas the MarketTreads Water With little conviction in oil prices and upstream spendingslowing, Baker Hughesoffersinvestors an idiosyncratic storycentered around building out natural gas infrastructurethrough the end of the decade. BKROVERWEIGHTU.S. Energy Services &TechnologyNEUTRALPrice TargetUSD 48.00Price (27-May-25)USD 37.23Potential Upside/Downside+28.9%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Last week we hosted Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli on the road in Boston along withnew CFO Ahmed Moghal. For much of the Energy Services sector, investor sentiment has taken aleg down with oil prices middling in the $60s, OPEC adding barrels back and upstream spendingslowing, however, Baker Hughes continues to stand out for its leverage to the build out ofnatural gas infrastructure which is showing no signs of slowing. With its backlog,aftermarketand diverse end markets, Baker Hughes is one of the few companies in our coverage that webelieve has benefited from non-energy investors to support a higher valuation multiple, and isincreasingly viewed as an industrial energy company as itshiftsfurther way from OFS. U.S. Energy Services & TechnologyJ. David Anderson, CFA+1 212 526 4016jdavid.anderson@barclays.comBCI, US Eddie Kim+1 212 526 9920eddie.kim@barclays.comBCI, US OFSE seeks to be more durable, less cyclical.Mr. Simonelli noted 2/3rds of OFSE’s NAM regionis driven by production (chemicals, artificiallift)and he is trying toshiftthe rest of the portfoliotowards less cyclical production activity. This could come from M&A by targeting criticalapplications in high end growth markets that are synergistic to the portfolio. Organically, BKR isbenefiting from ChampionX in limbo with SLB, and is gaining share in production chemicals asnew facilities in Saudi and Singapore ramp up to full capacity. Andre Schlatter+1 212 526 6368andre.schlatter@barclays.comBCI, US •Middle East:Mr. Simonelli was on hand for President Trump’s visit to the Middle East two•weeks ago, and confirms Baker Hughes signed several deals with Aramco for both current andfuture work, though we didn’t learn much about the details. Overall, he was optimistic aboutprospects for the region over the next several years, particularly with Saudi’s Jafurahunconventional natural gas field ramping up to full development speed (40 rigs) by the end ofthis year. With its stake in Adnoc Drilling, Baker Hughes will be supplying completionequipment (and perhaps other services) as the UAE pursues several unconventional fields,while also pointing to the untapped unconventionals of Algeria (first time we’ve heard thatmentioned). •North America:Mr. Simonelli doesn’t expect the majors or larger E&Ps to alter programs•unless oil prices take a leg down, meanwhile, the smaller players are already being moreaggressive dropping rigs while he’s seeing several service companies reducingstaff. IET more than just LNG, it’s a natural gas infrastructure play.Baker Hughes is one of the fewways for investors to play the theme of global gas infrastructure with the wide reach of its GasTechnology portfolio, in our view. While LNG gets most of attention, gas infrastructure provides Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 4.Completed: 28-May-25, 12:38 GMTReleased: 28-May-25, 12:42 GMTRestricted - External a base-line of EBITDA through processing, pipelines, and power. In Saudi Arabia, Baker Hughesis discussing the fourth andfifthphases of its Master Gas System while also providing boostingfor the emerging unconventional Jafurah field. Providing further end market diversification, thecompany expects the Climate Tech segment to remain on track to deliver more than $1bn inorders annually while industrial power generation for data centers potentially adds another$1.5bn over the next 3 years. •Data Centers:The massive power demand surge from data centers is creating a generation•boom in capacity that will be met by manydifferentsources. Longer term, we expect much ofthis demand will be met by utility scale turbines (150 MW), however, most of this capacitywon’t be delivered until at least 2028 and then faces challenges tying the power in the grid.Over the next several years, this power gap will likely be met by secondary power, oroff-grid“bridge” power driven by smaller scale turbines or reciprocating engines. Baker’s NovaLT 16MW turbine is in the sweet spot, an ideal size for trailer-mounted mobile power. With manydata centers requiring 200-250 MW, this represents around 20 turbines each (includingredundancies). Because the NovaLT is newer and therefore has higher specifications, th