迎难而上：2025年私募股权年中报告

Opportunities can flow out of today’s uncertainty andease mounting pressure on the industry. Authors Hugh MacArthurOr SkolnikBrenda RaineyAlexander De MolGraham RoseAlexander Schmitz This work is based on secondary market research, analysis of financial information available or provided to Bain & Company and a range ofinterviews with industry participants. Bain & Company has not independently verified any such information provided or available to Bainand makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. Projected market and financialinformation, analyses and conclusions contained herein are based on the information described above and on Bain & Company’s judgment,and should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guarantees of future performance or results. The information and analysis herein doesnot constitute advice of any kind, is not intended to be used for investment purposes, and neither Bain & Company nor any of its subsidiariesor their respective officers, directors, shareholders, employees or agents accept any responsibility or liability with respect to the use ofor reliance on any information or analysis contained in this document. This work is copyright Bain & Company and may not be published,transmitted, broadcast, copied, reproduced or reprinted in whole or in part without the explicit written permission of Bain & Company. Leaning Into the Turbulence: Private Equity Midyear R eport 2025 At a Glance Early signs indicate that tariff turmoil has held back deals and exits while investors digest theimplications, both short and long term. The second-quarter slowdown has exacerbated the urgent need to improve liquidity byaccelerating full exits, refreshing value-creation plans where necessary. Amid lingering volatility, PE firms can regain momentum through proactive dealmaking,clear-eyed due diligence, and a renewed focus on revenue and profit growth. Tariff turbulence has shaken the world, but it hasn’t broken the private equity market. However, thepressure within the industry—to find exits, distribute funds, source fresh capital and then put it to work—continues to mount. That’s the headline message so far from the first half of 2025 and its two contrasting quarters. Private equity began the year still enjoying the momentum from its 2024 improvement. January promiseda strong 12 months of dealmaking: Credit markets were open, debt was cheaper, inflation appeared undercontrol, and interest rates were trending down. The optimistic mood held just long enough for global buyout deal count in the first quarter of 2025 to beroughly in line with the 2024 trend. Deal value was the highest since the second quarter of 2022, havingbeen boosted by a few large transactions, such as Sycamore Partners’ $23.7 billion purchase of WalgreensBoots Alliance. Exits were pushed higher in the first quarter by a surge in sales to strategic buyers, such as GTCR’s sale ofa majority stake in payment processor Worldpay to Global Payments in a $24.25 billion deal and Mubadala’s$13.4 billion sale of Nova Chemicals to OMV and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. The relatively upbeat start to 2025 faded hours into the second quarter. Uncertainty about tariffs, which hadstarted to swirl in February, was amplified by the policy announcements of April 2, triggering volatilityacross global capital markets. Although the full impact on dealmaking isn’t yet clear, given the lead times to bring deals to fruition, thereare signs that the second quarter may see a slowdown(see Figure 1). The value of deals announced inApril was 24% below the monthly average for the first quarter of 2025, while deal count was down 22%. The slowdown on the entry side is mirrored on the exit side. The most immediate and visible impact wasseen in the IPO channel, where the already subdued market for initial public offerings essentially shutearly in the second quarter, with offerings postponed or canceled amid the tariff turmoil(see Figure 2). Leaning Into the Turbulence: Private Equity Midyear R eport 2025 Leaning Into the Turbulence: Private Equity Midyear R eport 2025 For instance, Swedish fintech Klarna—whose backers include Sequoia Capital, Silver Lake, and Permira—in early April reportedly paused its plans for a US IPO. While few in number, IPOs are critical for some bigportfolio companies. The slowdown is a direct product of the fresh uncertainty injected into long-term models. Investors hadalready processed a series of shocks over the past five years: Covid, the war in Ukraine, inflation, and thensharply rising interest rates. Tariff volatility hit just when their confidence in making predictions wasstarting to return. Whatever switchback turns lie ahead, PE firms must excelat creative dealmaking, due diligence, and value creationto make the most of the opportunities that will flow out oftoday’s uncertainty. Overall, constraints on dealmaking are likely to remain in the short term, a