2025年美国私募股权展望：年中更新

2025 US Private EquityOutlook: Midyear Update PitchBook Data, Inc. Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President ofResearch and Market Intelligence Marina LukatskyGlobal Head of Research,Credit and US Private Equity Checking in on our 2025 US PE predictions PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Analysis Garrett HindsSenior Research Analyst,Private Equitygarrett.hinds@pitchbook.com 2025 outlooks Jinny ChoiSenior Research Analyst,Private Equityjinny.choi@pitchbook.com p. 3The share of cumulative capital raised for private debt funds will hit a decadehigh of 33% for the top 10 managers. Kyle Walters p. 6PE-backed IPOs will capture 40% of US IPO capital. Research Analyst, Private Equitykyle.walters@pitchbook.com p. 8The maturity wall facing PE funds will grow as GPs struggle to wind downolder vintages that enter their harvesting stage. DataNick ZambranoData Analyst p. 11PE will see a decline in annual fundraising following multiple years ofrobust activity. pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com PublishingDesigned byMegan Woodard Published on June 24, 2025 Introduction Garrett HindsSenior Research Analyst, Private Equitygarrett.hinds@pitchbook.com At the end of every year, we share our views on how the year ahead will unfold forUS private equity. We offered four outlooks for 2025, and it is time to take stock ofthose trends to see how they are tracking. We look forward to sharing our takes onthese and other developments throughout the year in our four quarterly reports,the US PE Breakdown, the US PE Middle Market Report, the US Public PE and GP DealRoundup, and the Global M&A Report, as well as our semiannual Global PrivateDebt Report. At this time last year, the key debate centered on inflation and when base rateswould be lowered. Today, a different controversy takes center stage: global trade.Hopes for a resurgence in growth driven by probusiness policies have dimmed,overshadowed by the unpredictability of US tariffs. Public markets broke new highsin December, only to surrender gains in April. The volatility was severe, but publicmarkets are now back to pricing in an optimistic scenario. The other defining uncertainty is the prospect of a recession in 2025. In Q2,recession expectations edged higher, amplifying the unease. Today’s markets are nolonger fixated on rate cuts—they are searching for a tariff truce. Should that clarityarrive, global supply chains will begin rerouting through countries with reciprocal UStrade agreements. Until then, the risk of a recession will climb. Business investment, particularly in the second half of 2025, will be critical. Fornow, companies are delaying decisions—on inventory, on capital expenditures,and on supply chain commitments. The reasons are pragmatic. Tariffs are at theirhighest levels since the early 20th century, and importers fear overpaying for largeorders. Inconsistent policy makes sourcing difficult, pricing opaque, and strategicplanning tenuous. Amid the noise, our conviction in PE remains. In our view, the asset class is uniquelyequipped to navigate choppy macroeconomic waters. What sets PE apart? Ampledry powder, a long-term horizon, and a demonstrated capacity to adapt. With drypowder of nearly $1 trillion in equity strategies and roughly $500 billion in privatedebt strategies, the war chest is full. In 2025, we expect GPs to act with intention—contrarians in a market seeking direction. If clarity emerges on trade policy, macro conditions stabilize, and valuationsimprove, we anticipate a decisive wave of exits to satiate LPs clamoring for capitalreturns. Conversely, should growth stall and markets become dislocated, capital willflow—strategically, not indiscriminately—into those very pockets of disruption. Our other outlook reports from December2024 coverUS VC,EMEA private capital,APACprivate capital,healthcare & life sciences,consumer technology,industrial technology,andenterprise technology. We see opportunity in this backdrop. A recalibration of US trading relationshipscould open new frontiers—especially for PE. But that shift will take time. In theinterim, we anticipate a lull in growth as businesses pause to reassess. Outlook: The share of cumulative capital raised forprivate debt funds will hit a decade high of 33% for thetop 10 managers. Kyle WaltersResearch Analyst, Private Equitykyle.walters@pitchbook.com Rationale from December 2024 The rapid growth of private debt as an asset class in recent years has been welldocumented. Global AUM has grown nearly fourfold over the past decade, from$557 billion in 2014 to more than $2 trillion in 2023, and that is before factoringin any leverage applied. Beginning in 2022, the upward drift in the global count ofprivate debt fund managers slowed; the figure has grown by only 63 since the endof 2023, and the share of global capital raised by the top 10 managers rebounded