英伟达公司（NVDA US）：持有：上调幅度未达预期但足以弥补中国市场损失

EquitiesSemiconductors & Equipment Hold:No beatandraise but enoughto offset China loss United States ◆No beat and raisefor1QFY26resultsand2QFY26guidanceagainbut enough to avoid disappointmentfrom China loss MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)125.00120.00SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE134.81-7.3%(as of28 May 2025) ◆2HFY26 supply chain mismatch remains butstillhopefor ChinaAI GPUcomeback ◆MaintainHoldrating; raiseTPtoUSD125(from USD120) Nobeatandraiseagainbut good enough to avoid disappointment:NVIDIA’s1QFY26(FYe January) sales of USD44.1bnwasaslight beat vsHSBC/consensusestimatesofUSD43.5bn/USD43.3bn and managementguidance of USD43bn.2QFY26sales guidance of USD45bn wasinlinewithHSBCe/consensus ofUSD45bn/USD45.8bn.1QFY26GM of61% wasbelowmanagementguidance/consensusof 71%/66% butahead of HSBCeof 58.4% given USD4.6bncharge (less vs previousguidanceof USD5.5bn) from China H20 restrictions.Results and guidance once againfailed tobeat andraise,similar tothelast threequarters but it also did not disappoint the market despitetheloss of potential Chinasales of USD15bn in 1HFY26 (USD7bn in1Q and USD8bn in 2Q),whichweexpected in our15May preview note,Nvidia (NVDA US): 2H FY26 uncertainties. 2HFY26supply chain mismatchesremaindespiteimproving Blackwell rampup:Wecontinue to believe that a growing supply chain mismatch between upstream AIGPU shipments and downstream ODM NVL server rack shipments is likely toincrease into 2HFY26e despite improving downstream Blackwell rack yields.Hence,we still see potential for slower 2HFY26 GPU order momentum. Nevertheless, wealso seeabetter AI narrative on the backof theMiddle East AI deal that could offsetconcerns over slower US CSPcapexgrowth in 2026. However, weexpect marketfocus will needtosee upward revisions to 2026chip on wafer on substrate(CoWoS)allocation in 2HFY26 to re-affirm investor confidence in growth. Frank Lee*Global Head of Tech Hardware & Semi ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfrank.lee@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6916 Potential forChina AI GPU comeback in 2HFY26e despite H20restrictions:WebelieveNvidia is likely to haveanothernon-HopperAI GPU in 2HFY26 that will meetUS restrictions giventhereplacement of HBM infavourof GDDR7 memory thatcarriesalower ASP range of USD5,000-USD8,000.The AI GPUis unlikely to fullymake up fortheloss of H20 revenues but could seepotential China AI GPUcomeback withincremental revenue potential of USD3bnin2HFY26e. Pulkit Aggarwal*AssociateBangalore MaintainHoldrating; raiseTPtoUSD125(from USD120):Weraiseour FY26EPS estimate by4% to reflectbetter-than-expected gaming momentum as well aspositive GM guidance.OurnewTP ofUSD125(previously USD120)isbased on anunchanged target FY26 PE of 31xandimplies c7%downsidefrom currentlevels.Wemaintain our Hold ratingon the stockas we await more visibility into 2HFY26whileexpecting 1HFY26 to be in line with current estimates. While we continue to expectq-o-q growth in 2HFY26 as well, we believe we could turn more positive once morevisibility for any upside potential in 2H emerges.See page 5 for key risks. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:NVIDIA Corp Key takeaways from4QFY25 earnings call 1QFY26results: ◆Revenue of USD44.1bn (up 12%q-o-qand69%y-o-y) came in ahead of guidance ofUSD43bn driven bygaming segment performance.◆Non-GAAP gross margin of61% was down1,251bp sequentially andbelowguidance of71%. The sequential decrease wasas expected,driven by theinventory write off pertainingto the H20 GPU◆Non-GAAP operating margin of52.8%wasdown1,205bpsequentially.◆Non-GAAP EPS of USD0.81wasdown9%q-o-q. 2QFY26e outlook: ◆Revenueisexpected to be USD45bn, atthemid-point,implying a2% q-o-q increase.◆Non-GAAP gross marginisexpected to be 72%, atthemid-point.◆Non-GAAP opex of USD4bn implies a non-GAAP OM of 63.1%. Others ◆Management expects GM to reach mid-70% range late this year.◆Management acknowledged that it wasunable to ship USD2.5bn worth of H20 in 1QFY26.◆Loss of H20 revenue in 2QFY26 is expected to be USD8bn. Valuation and risks Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarilyresponsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any view