赛诺菲斯公司（SNPS US）：买入：有望在2025财年下半年实现强劲表现

Buy:On track to deliver a strong 2HFY25 United States ◆Largely in-line2QFY25revenue and non-GAAP operatingprofit, but non-GAAP EPS beatsestimates on one-off gain MAINTAIN BUY TARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)645.00645.00 ◆Growth reacceleration in sight, on track to deliver strong2HFY25 as demand continues to look robust SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE462.43+39.5%(as of28 May 2025) ◆Maintain BuyratingandUSD645.00target price 2QFY25results:Revenuewaslargely inlinewith consensus and ourestimate, and alsowith theguidancemidpoint, up10.3% y-o-y, which implies reacceleration after a weak 1Q(down c4%). Electronic Design Automation (EDA, 67% of revenue)segmentrevenuegrew 6% y-o-y despite a tough comparable in the year-ago quarter. Design IP (30% ofrevenue)segment revenue was up 21% y-o-y, after a 17% decline in the last quarter.Non-GAAP operating profit was 1-2% below consensus and our estimate on slightlyweaker operating marginthan expected, whichdidexpand, however, by0.65ppty-o-y.Non-GAAP EPSwasmuch stronger at USD3.67, beating ourestimate by 7%andconsensus byc8%, helped by one-off gain of USD0.28 from the sale of a building. Conference call takeaways:(1)Order backlog in 2QFY25 was at USD8.1bn, +3% y-o-yand +5%q-o-q. The company is seeingapickup in non-AI demand fromtheautomotiveand industrial sector. At the same time, AI demand remains robust.(2) Synopsys hasobtained regulatory approval for the Ansys merger from all jurisdictions other than China.Management is confidentinsecuring Chineseregulatory clearance and anticipatesdealclosure in 1H25.(3) Synopsys expectsay-o-y declinein China due to combination oftheimpact of trade restrictions and weaker macro environmentthere.(4) Managementassuredthat shrinking R&D spendingat Intel, Synopsys’ largest customer, doesn’t impactthe company as thecommitmentsare multiyear on the software side (EDA) and non-cancellable on the hardware side (Design IP). Investment thesis:Synopsys is on track to deliver strong performance in 2HFY25, in ourview. Despite expected weakness in China, the company maintained its FY25 guidancefor top-line and non-GAAP operating profit, and raised non-GAAP EPS guidance by c2%onthestrong2Q.The company expects to offset declinesin China with strongerperformance in other regions and robust demand trends in general. We notethestrongacceleration in Europe (+32% y-o-y) and Korea (+33% y-o-y) during 2Q.AI-led demandremainsstrong, particularly in the semiconductor sector. Additionally, the stabilisation andpickupin non-AI demand from industrial and automotive sectors is encouraging. We keepour estimates largely unchanged and continue to have a positive stance on Synopsys.Our 18%non-GAAPEPS CAGRfor Synopsysover CY24-27eisahead ofthe softwaresector average of10-15%. Stephen BerseyHead of US Technology ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.stephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4153 Abhishek Shukla*, CFASenior Analyst, TechnologyHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCabhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com+971 4 5093343 Govinder Kumar*Analyst, US Technology Research HSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCgovinder.kumar@hsbc.com.mx+52 55 8551 6650 Maintain BuyratingandUSD645.00target price:We value Synopsysby applyinga2.4xPEGmultiple(unchanged)to our five-year non-GAAP EPS CAGR estimate of17.56% (from17.46%)and our next-12-monthnon-GAAP EPS estimate ofUSD15.31(from USD15.38)to arrive atour TP ofUSD645.00(unchanged), whichimpliesc40%upside.We maintainourBuyratingon the stock. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be readwith the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Synopsys Inc Synopsys in charts Source:Company reports Synopsys:2QFY25financialresults review Estimate changes We update our modelto reflect2QFY25results,whichwerein line at the top-lineand operatinglevels butstronger thanweexpectedatthebottom line. We alsoupdate our model withthelatest3QFY25guidanceand our updated views.Synopsys kept its FY26 guidance unchanged,exceptfornon-GAAP EPS,which was raised by 2%.Theseresult in minor changestoourFY25-27eestimates. Balance sheet summaryCash and cash equivalents Risksto our view Valuation Downside risks:Unfavorable stockmarket, economicconditions, and valuation multiple fluctuations; weaker-than-expected operating performance andmargins; slower-than-expected turnover and earnings growth; potential negativeimpact from an external IT hack; macro downturns; disruptionsdue to management turnover; slower-than-expected growth insemiconductor and electronics industries; and stricter-than-expected regulatory environment leading to curbs in globalimport and export of semiconductor technology. Assumptions