萨索尔（SOL SJ）：买入：国际化学品业务实现15%的目标看似可行

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com16 -19 June, The May Fair Hotel, LondonGCC Exchanges Conference 2025MAINTAINBUYTARGET PRICE(ZAR)180.00SHARE PRICE(ZAR)82.00(as of27 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(ZARm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(ZAR)Year to06/2024aHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(ZAR)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesSriharsha Pappu*Head of Chemicals, EnergyTransition CoordinatorHSBC Bank plcsriharsha.pappu@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 9243Renison Macwan*AssociateBangalore* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsSouth Africa05/24Target price: 180.00High: 148.99 Low: 55.33 Current: 82.00 ◆◆◆ RegisterPREVIOUS TARGET(ZAR)180.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+119.5%52,730Free float2,938BBG16RIC06/2025e-69.9420.44-69.9420.440.040.7227.21nm2.42.4-26.011/24 100%SOL SJSOLJ.J06/2026e06/2027e31.8340.3931.8340.390.00.00.031.7738.374.02.62.00.00.07.43.63.12.68.712.113.739.00119.50200.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to06/2024a06/2025eProfit & losssummary(ZARm)Revenue275,111240,187EBITDA60,01241,279Depreciation & amortisation-15,644-15,618Operating profit/EBIT43,38226,561Net interest-7,201-6,556PBT-34,50618,135HSBC PBT-34,50618,135Taxation-9,739-4,528Net profit-44,27112,939HSBC net profit-44,27112,939Cash flow summary(ZARm)Cash flow fromoperations37,60126,332Capex-30,428-29,000Cash flow from investment-30,666-29,000Dividends-7,6330Change in net debt-1,4432,668FCF equity7,173-2,668Balance sheet summary(ZARm)Intangible fixed assets2,4622,462Tangible fixed assets163,589183,158Current assets126,721107,858Cash & others48,91537,626Total assets364,980365,686Operating liabilities51,39147,112Gross debt135,774127,153Net debt86,85989,527Shareholders' funds143,005155,944Invested capital192,466208,741Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to06/2024a06/2025eY-o-y % changeRevenue-5.0-12.7EBITDA-9.5-31.2Operating profit-12.2-38.8PBT-337.7HSBC EPS-626.1Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.21.2ROIC25.89.6ROE-26.08.7ROA-7.75.7EBITDA margin21.817.2Operating profit margin15.811.1EBITDA/net interest (x)8.36.3Net debt/equity58.955.6Net debt/EBITDA (x)1.42.2CF from operations/net debt43.329.4Per share data(ZAR)EPS Rep (diluted)-69.9420.44HSBC EPS (diluted)-69.9420.44DPS2.000.00Book value225.92246.36Financials & valuation:Sasol Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 27 May 2025 What we heard at the CMDRoadmap clear, execution TBCIn our note prior to the Sasol Capital Markets Day (CMD), seeSasol: What we need to hear atthe CMD, 30 Apr 25, we highlighted the things that we needed to hear at the CMD–namely:a)putting terminal value back in play;b) a credible near-termself-helpplan on synfuels volumesand chemical earnings;and c) a plan for driving cashflows higher and sustained deleveraging.In aggregate, as we look back at the CMD last week, we believe Sasol cleared the bar on all ofthose questions. Execution on the plans remainsTBC and there is rightfully asignificantamountof investorcautionon Sasol’s ability to execute–but we think the broad contours and thedetailed specifics of the roadmap make for a fairly interestinginvestment case.No turn down on synfuel volumes…Sasol moved away from its earlier plans to turn down synfuel volumes starting 2030tomeetemission targets and instead committed to running Secunda, the engine of its synfuels portfolio,as hard as possible in order tomaximisecashflow. The emission targets were also reaffirmed,with the company highlighting that a combination of renewables investments and changes toregulatory policy onload-basedsulphurdioxidelimits would allow it to meet emission targetswhile sticking to its volume goalsand cutting decarbonisation capex.This is essentially what we were looking for–a clear guide to re-establishing terminal value andclarity on thelong-termvolume outlook for the business.… plus a plan for higher near-termproductionThere was also a near-term plan presented for improving synfuels volumes aiming at sustainedproduction of over 7.4mtpa of synfuels from FY’28 onwards with interim steps of 7.0-7.2mtpa in FY’26and7.2-7.4mtpa in FY’27,aided by the destoning project. With FY’26, a month away,we hopethatmanagement would notattempt toguide to an FY’26 target that was not achievable. If those volumesdo materialise, that would represent amaterial step up in volumes from the current FY’25 baseline.Now, there remain significant question marks, andcautionaround the ability to deliver bothnear-term andlonger-termvolume targets. Investors are worried about whether the companycan execute on its destoning projectand if indeed destoningisthe panacea for all of the illsimpacting synfuels production. Longer term there are questions around coal availability, capex,and the additional impact of losing gas volumes post 2028.The path to 15% in chems◆CMD hit all the right notes–putting terminal value back in play andfocusing