BB(F)Q：本的双周化肥报价

Restricted - External Americas AgribusinessNEUTRALAmericas AgribusinessBenjamin M. Theurer+52 55 5241 3322benjamin.theurer@barclays.comBCCB, MexicoRahi Parikh+1 212 526 0150rahi.parikh@barclays.comBCI, USRyan Lavin+1 212 526 8713ryan.lavin1@barclays.comBCI, USReid Monahan+1 212 526 7506reid.monahan@barclays.comBCI, US no spot demand was noticed; SE Asia however, saw tight supply with most produced tonsalready accounted for and lingering demand.Phosphates: DAP: Prices independent of region are 3% higher on average 2WoW(vs+2% last update) and rise to ~$690/mt. Central Florida and FOB NOLA US prices are both up6% 2WoW, respectively, while FOB Baltic expands 2% 2WoW. See Figures 16 - 18.MAP:Independent of region, MAP prices are up 5% 2WoW(vs +1% in our previous report) andincrease to ~$670/mt. MAP prices in Brazil and the Baltic both rise 2% 2WoW, respectively.FOB NOLA was 8% higher 2WoW.Indian purchases for Saudi Arabian and Russian DAPcontinue to increase, up $10/mt each week in this 2WoW period, reaching $738/mt CFRIndia.As noted by S&P, as India comes closer to its kharif season,phosphate prices couldsee further price hikesdue to neighboring countries' demand. OnChina, the market stillstands confused on timing and volume allocation; S&P's source indicated a potential 2-2.5mnmt for DAP and 1-1.5mn mt for MAP exports from May 15 to July 31; a second window couldopen from Aug 1 to Oct 15. The platform could also see only half of last year's allocation cometo fruition; in 2024, China exported ~9.5mn mt DAP and ~10.5mn mt MAP. FOB prices there hit~$700/mt, up $10/mt on the week, with participants expecting some price elevation asexports ramp up by June. Additionally, rooting from these export decisions,Pakistancouldsee a lower premium than usual, as Chinese product is potentially restricted from enteringIndia. Finally, Ethiopia's tender closed in the two-week period, with the market surprised by alower-than-expectedofferpresented for Chinese material ($690/mt FOB). The purchasetender gatheredofferedvolumes >2x as much as asking. Finally, Moroccan-origin exports tothe US are unrealistically expensive, according to S&P sources. See Figures 11 - 18.Potash:Prices show no change compared to two weeks agoand stay at $300/mt onaverage (vs +1% in our previous report).Avg Vancouver spot FOB was flat 2WoW while FOBNOLA prices have been 1% higher over the same period. CFR EC Latin America showed nochange 2WoW. See Figures 19 - 22.China’s2025 contract debate sits at $350–360/mt CFRfrom sellers and $300–310/mt from buyers while Indian negotiations (as of our last update)showed a similar buying range but slightly lower on theoffers;as follows, S&P reported afirming in the market within the last two weeks due to the potential of tighter supplies.SE Asia was more stable, similar to the EU wheresofterdemand (ending of season)offsetshort tonnage.BZ prices are flat from May, with buyers unwilling to pay moreagainst thealready expensive price tag; reports that domestic FOB prices are $20/mt under market pricescould indicate a downward trajectory. Over to the US, spring planting is mostly complete andtherefore spot demand has slowed.Canadian-sourced product however is still reppingfirmer pricing especially with exports to Asia, supporting the US.Urea: Prices fall 4% 2WoWon average (vs +3% in our previous report) based on trading datafor our relevant areas and move to ~$370/mt. FOB NOLA US domestic is down 20% 2WoW,while FOB Baltic and FOB Black Sea are 1% lower and flat on average, respectively. CFR Brazilis up 8% 2WoW. See Figures 23 - 26.As expected, US urea prices droppedon reduceddemand as the planting season concluded and buyers were generally stocked. BZ pricingcontracted two weeks ago but recovered in the last week with more demand in the North,partiallyoffsetbutsoftnessin the South. Some players here bought tons early in light ofEgyptian cuts. Yesterday,NFL announced a new purchase tenderdue June 12 for 1.5 millionmt (high end of est range) of prilled and granular urea for shipment to West Coast Indiathrough July. Last week,Chineseexport prices sat around $360-$365/mt FOB for prilledurea. According to S&P, customs inspections for urea cargoes were set to begin May 24, withloading periods expected by mid-June. Inspections will be conducted at factories instead ofat ports, as relayed by S&P, most likely to instill more stringent rules. Exporters in need of CIQapproval have to be registered for exports, secure endorsements from authorities, andcontracts must have approval from trade regulators (such as China Nitrogen Fertilizer •••2 Association). Over inEgypt, nat gas is still cut by 20% as of May 12 and is expected to keeplevels as such for 20 days. Most suppliers have also begun maintenance until EOM May. Pricesslightly increased on better demand among these constraints. Algeria also saw constantdemand.We note that the 2WoW period linked with Ammonia, Phosphate, and Urea ends on the pastThursday and begins two Thursdays p