Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC / Sandoz AG: 4月IQVIA仿制药/生物类似药更新

Restricted - External SDZ.S/SDZ SWOVERWEIGHTEuropean Pharmaceuticals& Life SciencesNEUTRALPrice TargetCHF 46.50Price (28-May-25)CHF 40.39Potential Upside/Downside+15.1%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchHIK.L/HIK LNEQUAL WEIGHTEuropean Pharmaceuticals& Life SciencesNEUTRALPrice TargetGBP 20.00Price (28-May-25)GBP 21.48Potential Upside/Downside-6.9%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEuropean Pharmaceuticals & LifeSciencesEmily Field, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6263emily.field@barclays.comBarclays, UKCharles Pitman-King, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 6023charles.pitman-king@barclays.comBarclays, UKShirley Chen, PhD+44 (0)20 7773 2109shirley.chen@barclays.comBarclays, UKYihan Li, PhD+44 (0)20 3555 3563yihan.li@barclays.comBarclays, UKSidhartha Modi+91 (0)22 6175 1326sidhartha.modi@barclays.comBarclays, UKAnurag Surendra Sharma+91 (0)22 6175 4548anuragsu.sharma@barclays.comBarclays, UK •IQVIA data for Injectables:Overall, gross sales of Injectables were +9.2% y/y in April 2025 vs+7.9% y/y in Mar 2025 (+14.4% vs. +2.8% during Apr '25 and Mar '25 on a per working daybasis). On an absolute basis, volume (eaches) were +8.6% y/y in April and the implied pricewas +0.6% y/y (vs. +5.8% and +2.0% in Mar '25, respectively).Our latest thoughts on SDZ/HIK:•Sandoz:We updated our model post 1Q25 results (see:Sandoz AG: Climb every mountain(01/05/25)). In our view, Sandoz story continues to remain 2H weighted with topline andmargin both expected to benefit from new/recent biosimilar launches - the company hasguided for the same. We feel confident regarding the company execution capabilities andthink it will be able to meet its guidance.•Hikma:We updated our model post 1Q25 trading update (see:Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC: Agood house as the neighbourhood gets increasingly choppy (25/04/25)), however note theincrease in topline/ core operating profit mid-term guide at the recent 'meet themanagement' event. The company now guides for +6%-8% CAGR topline growth over 24-27with core operating profit expected to grow at +7%-9% CAGR during the period. The companyalso introduced a target of $5bn group revenues in 2030, primarily based on accelerating R&Dand contributions from CMO and compounding businesses. FY25 guide was not updated andno granularity was provided on segmental growth - Injectables face pressure from increasedcompetition for two of company's high margin products and would be 2H weighted. Themanagement has highlighted about expanding US manufacturing footprint amidtariffuncertainties, with <5% of inputs sourced from China, suggesting HIK's resilience. We remainconfident about HIK achieving its FY25 targets and see it as a relatively well-positioned namein the current uncertain macroeconomic environment.2 FIGURE 1. adalimumab: IQVIA weekly TRx (LHS) and Sandoz's share of the market (RHS)Please note- IQVIA stopped reporting Cordavis TRx from Jan'25. so the above data only represents authorised Hyrimoz TRx.Source: Barclays Research, Combined Audit, Formulary Impact Analyzer (FIA) Audit, Feb 2023 - May 2025, Copyright IQVIA. All rights reservedHyrimoz (bAdalimumab) biosimilar trackerHyrimoz (high concentration formulation (HCF) biosimilar Humira), being the first HCF productthat has the same dosing option as the originator product, has seen a strong start in the US.Total Humira biosimilar penetration in the US has accelerated considerably post the entry ofSandoz, which according to IQVIA data has secured the leading share position amongstbiosimilars. We expect the ramp to continue as Sandoz has preferred access to 65% of CVS'scommercial businessafterCVS Caremark removed Humira from its major national formularies(seeAbbVie Inc.: Quick Thoughts on CVS Humira Biosimilar News(03/01/24)). Hyrimoz now alsohas broad PBM access (at 3Q24, Sandoz indicated it has the broadest payer coverage of allbiosimilars, with coverage from the three major PBMs).There are currently 11 companies with Humira biosimilar; Sandoz with authorized Hyrimoz hasmeaningful market share within Biosimilars (~5.3% in total including branded, while ~28.2%amongst biosimilars). Sandoz's market share based on weekly data was 5.8% as of 16/05/25 vs.5.4% in the week of 18/04/25 in the previous month (+40bps over the past 4 weeks). 3 29 May 2025 FIGURE 3. Ustekinumab: IQVIA weekly TRxSource: Barclays Research, Combined Audit, Formulary Impact Analyzer (FIA) Audit, Feb 2023 - May 2025, Copyright IQVIA. All rights reservedPyzchiva (bStelara) biosimilar trackerA total of eight biosimilars (including SDZ's Pyzchiva) have been approved for launch in the US.While six have already been launched at a discount of 80-90% to the originator's WAC, twoothers would be launched later during the year. AMGN's Wezlana has the initial patentprotection related to interchangeable designation; however, other companies are expected toachieve the status in May this year. The higher than initially anticipated price discount has led toinvestors doubting the peak sales potential for biosimilar products and w