英伟达（NVDA）：2026财年第一季度回顾-屡遭打击，仍持续前行

F26E32.828 May 2025153.13/86.625,888.553,289.363,245.666M(0.4)(1.8)1.405/255000550060006500 RatingOutperformPrice TargetNVDAAdjusted EPSNVDA (USD)OLDSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.ticking..."NVIDIA's FQ1 results were strong, above on revenues despite ~$2.5B in lost H20 sales;EPS missed due to the H20 writedown but beat excluding it ($44,062M/$0.81 and $0.96ex-charge vs Street at $43,317M/$0.88). Gaming revenues ($3.8B) were well aboveexpectations, with Datacenter slightly below on lost H20 revenues at $39.1B (Street at$39.4B) but probably better than expected all things considered, and would have solidlybeat if not for the China ban. The Blackwell ramp rapidly accelerated with ~$23-$24B inthe quarter (vs $11B in FQ4), close to ~70% of Datacenter Compute revenues. ProVis wasroughly in-line with expectations, with Auto was a hair below. Gross margins ex-charge weresolid at 71.3%, ~30bps above guidance.FQ2 guidance was good, and fairly close to current consensus even as it included ~$8B inlost H20 orders (so would have clearly blown numbers away otherwise); overall revenue andEPS were guided only modestly below the street ($45.0B/~$0.98 vs Street $46.4B/$1.01)but likely above investor expectations. Modest sequential growth is expected in all segmentsincluding datacenter, with continued ramp of Blackwell partially offset by the H20 ban. Grossmargin outlook at 72% was also solid, with mid-70’s still targeted for later in the year.Amid a messy quarter NVIDIA is comporting themselves extremely well. The China headwindis unpleasant and frustrating, but we salute management for trying to sugarcoat neither thenear-term impact nor the potential longer term implications, and it appears fully flushed outof numbers (hence representing possible upside if and when the company can manage towork around the new constraints). And the general outlook and environment overall seemsvery encouraging (and better than last quarter) as the Blackwell ramp takes off, rack supplyeases into the 2H, and demand outlook into year-end (and probably into CY26) looks to besolidifying, and robust as ever as compute requirements continue to move upward.Tweaking estimates, maintaining our $185 PT and Outperform rating.Investment ImplicationsNVDA (OP, $185):The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with materialupside still possible.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 29 May 2025 03:53 UTC Completion Date: 29 May 2025 03:53 UTC F27E25.2134.81185.0037%0.0%12M18.411.0 F25AF26EF27E2.994.115.36--4.135.25FinancialsF25AF26EF27ECAGRRevenues (M)130,497190,373226,594--EBIT (M)86,788118,415151,043--FCF (M)60,855105,856126,348--Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (B)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$160$150$140$130$120$110$100$9005/24 DETAILSOur updated model can be found here: NVDA Model.NVIDIA's FQ1 results were strong, above on revenues despite ~$2.5B in lost H20 sales; EPS missed due to the H20writedown but beat excluding it ($44,062M/$0.81 and $0.96 ex-charge vs Street at $43,317M/$0.88). Gamingrevenues ($3.8B) were well above expectations, with Datacenter slightly below on lost H20 revenues at $39.1B(Street at $39.4B) but probably better than expected all things considered, and would have solidly beat if not for theChina ban. The Blackwell ramp rapidly accelerated with ~$23-$24B in the quarter (vs $11B in FQ4), close to ~70%of Datacenter Compute revenues. ProVis was roughly in-line with expectations, with Auto was a hair below. Grossmargins ex-charge were solid at 71.3%, ~30bps above guidance.•Revenues of $44,062M were slightly above consensus expectations($43,317M), and guidance ($43,000M) (Exhibit1) even accounting for ~$2.5B in lost H20 China sales due to the new April export controls. The slight beat was driven byGaming, which reached record levels in the quarter on the back of robust demand for new Blackwell parts and increasedsupply.•Datacenter segment revenuesof $39,112M, were up 10% QoQ and up 73% YoY and was slightly below sell-sideconsensus at $39,358M (but probably better than investor expectations) given the new H20 export license requirementswhich landed towards the end of the quarter, resulting in ~$2.5B of lost H20 revenues (results would have solidly beatotherwise). AI demand still appears robust, and the Blackwell ramp rapidly accelerated with sales likely more than doublingQoQ to probably $23-$24B (close to 70% of Datacenter compute revenues). Networking strength helped as well, comingin at $4.96B, up 64% QoQ and well above expectations; Compute revenues totaled ~$34.2B (up 5% QoQ), a bit belowexpectations given the China headwinds.•Gaming saleswere up 48% QoQ and up 42% YoY to $3,763M, and were well above consensus at $2,853M (Exhibit 2) withManagement citing robust demand for new Blackwell parts and increasing supply (we note