JEF商场客流量指数-较易的同比基数提升了4月数据
Equity ResearchMay 29, 20251 (212) 778-8011 | ltsai@jefferies.comJonathan Petersen * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-1705 | jpetersen@jefferies.comRandal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.comAndy Barish * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1524 | abarish@jefferies.comCorey Tarlowe * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7541 | ctarlowe@jefferies.comAshley Helgans * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7367 | ahelgans@jefferies.comAhmed Mehri * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8456 | amehri@jefferies.comBlake Anderson, CFA * | Equity Associate(212) 323-7686 | banderson2@jefferies.comBrendan Cutler * | Equity Associate+1 (332) 236-6839 | bcutler@jefferies.comExhibit 3 - Mall REIT SSS Foot Traffic YoYMACSKT3.2%5.8%1.3%-2.4%-3.0%-8.7%MACSKT5.0%5.8%1.7%-2.4%-11.8%-8.7%MAC3.2%1.3%-2.8%Exhibit 4 - Department Stores SSS Foot TrafficJWNJWN Rack1.6%-2.2%4.2%1.5%-2.9%-5.3% SKT-2.8%7.7%-6.4% Linda Tsai * | Equity Analyst Exhibit 2 - Top tenant Categories by Mall.Fitness/GymsTelecom CarriersElectronics/ApplianceHome FurnishingsDepartment StoresSporting GoodsJewelry/LuggageShoe StoresHealth/Personal CareClothing StoresRestaurantsSource: Jefferies, SafeGraphPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Malls - Same Store Foot TrafficChart 1 - SSS Quarterly Mall Foot Traffic YoY (1Q23-1Q25E).-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%3Q224Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25Source: Jefferies, PlacerExhibit 5 - SPG Quarterly SSS Foot Traffic YoY By Property Type.-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%3Q224Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25SPG - MillsSource: Jefferies, PlacerExhibit 7 - MAC Quarterly SSS Foot Traffic YoY By Property Type.-10%-5%0%5%10%15%3Q224Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25MAC - OutletsSource: Jefferies, PlacerNote we only track 2 MAC OutletsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. SKTSPGMACSPG - OutletsSPG - MallsMAC - Malls Latest Month vs. 2017-2019 Same Month(i.e January 2024 vs 2017-2019 January average)Exhibit 9 - SPG Monthly Foot Traffic Index vs. Pre-Covid AverageCurrent Month Index as % of Monthly Average 2017-2019.0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Source: Jefferies, PlacerExhibit 11 - SKT Monthly Foot Traffic Index vs. Pre-Covid AverageCurrent Month Index as % of Monthly Average 2017-2019.0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Source: Jefferies, PlacerPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 93.8%Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24Feb-25Apr-2593.0%Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24Feb-25Apr-25 .Source: Jefferies, PlacerExhibit 12 - Monthly Foot Traffic Index vs. Pre-Covid AveragePre-Covid averages are calculated as the 2017-2019 total average of the index.050100150200Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18SPG Pre-Covid AvgSPGSource: Jefferies, Placer Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25MAC Pre-Covid AvgSKT Pre-Covid AvgMACSKT Monthly Same Store Foot Traffic & Same Store SalesExhibit 13 - Dept Stores - Foot Traffic YoY.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24Macy'sSource: Placer, Jefferies (Ashley Helgans, Consumer Research)Exhibit 15 - Full Service Restaurants - SSS YoY.-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%Casual DiningIndustrySource: Guest XM, powered by Black Box Intelligence; Jefferies (Andy Barish, Consumer Research)Exhibit 17 - Monthly SSS Foot Traffic YoY - Jewelers.-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Kay JewelersSource: Jefferies, PlacerPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25Kohl'sNordstromNordstrom RackExhibit 14 - Sales vs. 2019: Dept Store B&M Retail Sales vs. Cons. Est..101%103%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%2Q223Q22Sales as % of 2019MCorrelation w/ Retail SalesM: 84%KSS: 45%DDS: 66%Source: Company filings, U.S. Census Bureau data through March 2025, FactsetUpscale CasualFamily DiningFine DiningExhibit 16 - Limited Service Restaurants - SSS YoY.-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%Source: Guest XM, powered by Black Box Intelligence; Jefferies (Andy Barish, Consumer Research)Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24Feb-25Apr-25Kay Jewelers OutletZales OutletExhibit 18 - Monthly SSS Foot Traffic YoY
